Market News. Rummen keskuspankki pitää kolmannen kerran koron. Romanian keskuspankki päätti torstaina säilyttää korkoaan ennallaan kolmannen kerran peräkkäin talouden laskusuhdanteesta johtuen ennallaan heikentynyt leu Päätös Oli sopusoinnussa taloustieteilijöiden odotusten kanssa. Romanian keskuspankin rahapoliittinen neuvosto säilytti keskeisen koron 5 25 prosentilla. Pankki päätti myös säilyttää nykyiset vähimmäisvarantotalletustasot kotimaisissa ja ulkomaisissa luottolaitoksissa. Viime kerralla Keskuspankki laski korkoa maaliskuussa, kun se laski avainhintaan 25 peruspistettä vastaavalla vähennyksellä helmikuussa. Ne olivat osa neljää leikkausta, jotka toteutettiin tukemaan leua sen jälkeen, kun se laski ennätykselliseen matalaan koska maa kaatui historiansa huonoimpaan poliittiseen myllerrykseen. Romanian talous supistui vaatimattomasti ensimmäisellä neljänneksellä Bruttokansantuote putosi 0 1 min entistä vähemmän, kun se laski 0 2 prosenttia neljännellä vuosineljänneksellä vuosittain, BKT kasvoi 0 3 prosenttia. Materiaalia on tarjonnut Instaforex Company. Lisää Forex Market News. FBI-häviöt binary options petosta juosta miljoonia. 14 2017 13 02 11. Näyttää siltä, että sääntelyviranomaiset ja lainvalvontaviranomaiset ympäri maailmaa ovat lopulta tietoisia riskeistä kaupankäynnin binääri vaihtoehtoja Lue lisää. Singapore s sääntelyviranomainen varoittaa vaaroja sääntelemättömiä binääri vaihtoehtoja välittäjät. Mar 14 2017 11 56 36.Singaporen rahoituspalvelujen sääntelyviranomainen, Singaporen rahapoliittinen viranomainen on julkaissut neuvoa-antavan varoituksen, jonka mukaan sijoittajat ovat vaarassa käydä kauppaa säännellyillä binaarisilla optio-oikeuksilla varustetuilla välittäjillä ja alustoilla. Lue lisää. Ireland ehdottaa rajoittavia toimenpiteitä forex - ja CFD-kaupankäynnille. Tam 06 2017 10 44 05.Jälkeen Financial Conduct Authority rajoitti vipuvaikutusta 150 ja kielletty kaupankäynnin bonuksia Yhdistyneessä kuningaskunnassa, ei ole tuskin yllättynyt, että Irlannin varainhoidon seuranta noudattaa Read more. F CA-kysely Yli 55-vuotiaat ovat menettäneet keskimäärin 32 000 investointihuijaa. Mar 02 2017 14 46 49.Yleisemmät kansalaiset tai yli 55-vuotiaat ihmiset ovat tarkempia, ovat menettäneet keskimäärin 32 000 vuonna 2016 eri Rahoitusinvestointihinnat, esittelee UK: n sähkönjohtamisviranomaisen selvityksen, joka julkaistaan osana sen Scam Smart-kampanjaa. Lue lisää. Mitä riskejä kaupankäynnistä offshore forex brokers. Feb 28 2017 13 05 12.Offshore kohteet ovat kuuluisia sen valo jos ne ovat houkuttelevia paikkoja Forex - ja Binary Options Brokers - yrityksille, sillä se on suhteellisen helppoa ja kustannustehokasta aloittelijoille rekisteröityä ja hoitaa välitysliiketoimintaa. Lue lisää. Investors Yhdistyneessä kuningaskunnassa eniten kiinnostunut binary options. Feb 27 2017 10 15 01. Näyttää siltä, että suurin osa Yhdistyneen kuningaskunnan sijoittajista etsii tietoja ja neuvoja binaarivaihtoehdoista. Binaarivaihtoehtojen kyselytutkimukset muodostavat 17 kaikkia FCA Consumer Contact Centerin sijoitustuotteita koskevia kyselyitä. E. Israel luo lakia, jolla kielletään binaaristen vaihtoehtojen markkinointi ulkomailla. Feb 23 2017 12 52 44. Israelin arvopaperimarkkinaviranomainen on laatinut lakia, jolla kiellettäisiin paikallisesti toimiluvan saaneiden välittäjien markkinointi ja mainonta binääriasetukset maan ulkopuolella, verkkomedian rahoitus Magnates ilmoitti torstaina Lue lisää. French-rahoitusalan sääntelyviranomainen pyrkii saamaan arvonlisäveron 1 10: een ja kieltämään FX-, CFD - ja binaarivalintojen mainon. Feb 21 2017 12 58 27. Seuraava EU: n jäsenvaltio aikoo ottaa käyttöön binääriasetusten tiukentamista, FX Ja CFDs on Hollanti Lue lisää. Turkin sääntelijän korkit laskevat 1 10: een ja asettavat TRY 50 000. talletuksen vähimmäismäärän 10.2.2017 11 26 00. Turkin rahoitusmarkkinoiden sääntelyviranomainen, Capital Markets Board SPK, on ottanut käyttöön uuden Valuuttamarkkinoiden rajoitukset, alentamalla edelleen vipuvaikutusta ja asettamalla vähimmäisvakuusvaatimus avoimen valuutanvaihtotilin avaamiseksi Lue lisää. Trumpin vaikutus Forex Markets. Feb 06 2017 17 53 45.Don Ald Trumpin voitto vuoden 2016 Yhdysvaltain presidentinvaaleissa tuli suuri shokki monille ihmisille. Maailma ei yksinkertaisesti ollut valmistautunut siihen. Tosiasia on, että Donald Trump on Yhdysvaltain 45. presidentti. Jos hän on totta sanojensa puolesta, ei vain asukkaat U Lue lisää. Forex Industry News. Latest forex-välittäjät. Forex-kaupankäynti kantaa korkean riskin ja saattaa olla sopiva kaikille sijoittajille Ennen kuin ryhdyt käymään kauppaa valuuttamarkkinoilla, ole hyvä ja tutustukaa sen erityispiirteisiin ja kaikkiin Siihen liittyvät riskit Kaikki tiedot julkaistaan vain yleisiä tietoja varten Emme anna takuita näiden tietojen paikkansapitävyydestä ja luotettavuudesta Kaikki tällä sivustolla olevien tietojen antamat toimenpiteet ovat tiukasti omalla vastuullasi, ja me ei ole vastuussa mistään menetyksistä tai vahingoista, jotka johtuvat verkkosivustomme käytöstä. Kaikki tekstisisältö on tekijänoikeudella suojattu ja suojattu immateriaalioikeuksien nojalla. Et voi toistaa, dist Julkaisee tai lähettää minkä tahansa sivuston osia ilmoittamatta meitä lähteenä, ei vaadi verkkosivuilla käytettyjen kuvamateriaalien tekijänoikeuksia, mukaan lukien välittäjien logot, kuvat ja kuvat. Forexbrokerz-verkkosivusto käyttää evästeitä Jatkamalla selaamassa sivustoa, josta olet samaa mieltä evästeiden käyttöä varten Lue tietosuojakäytäntöämme. Liiketoimintauutisia ja - markkinoita tapahtui 4. heinäkuuta 2013. Lontoon kaupunginjohtaja, joka vastustaa voimakkaasti Heathrow'n laajentumista, on lisännyt kampanjansa super-lentokentälle muualla pääkaupungissa tekemällä tutkimusta Että vain neljällä kiitotien lentoasemalla on tarpeeksi yhteyksiä Aasian ja Latinalaisen Amerikan kaltaisiin alueisiin, jotta Iso-Britannia voisi kilpailla tehokkaasti kaupankäynnistä. York Aviationin neuvonantajien laatimassa yksityiskohtaisessa tutkimuksessa väitetään, että Britannian pitää yllä yhteyksiä Lontoossa on tarvitseville neljä kiitorataa, jotka toimivat tehokkaasti yhdessä paikassa, eivätkä levitä sattumanvaraisesti kaakkoisosaan. ltnoframe gtTwitter Ed Co Nway - Tänään suurin yhden päivän nousu FTSE 100: stä marraskuusta 2011 alkaen Ylös 3 1 - vastaava 16349bn Markkinat näyttävät miellytäkseni Mark Carney lt: n noframe gt.17 03 Kommentoidessaan tämän päivän markkinoiden muuttajia William Nicholls pääkaupungissa Levitä, sanoi. Wow, katsokaa FTSE mennä BOE jätti nykyiset korot ja QE ennallaan lounasaikana tänään ja tämä vakuutus siitä, että uusi pomo Mark Carney voitti t poistamaan taloudellisen ensiapupakkauksen on houkutellut markkinoita yhdessä Suurimman riskin päivinä jonkin aikaa On mielenkiintoista nähdä, miten yhdeksän ääntä heitettiin, mutta nämä tiedot voittivat saataville vasta ensi kuussa Spread vedonlyöntiasiakkaat ovat myynyt liikkeelle voimakkaasti toivoen, että liike ei ole mitään muuta kuin yli-reaktio .16 52 FTSE 100: n varsin upea päivä on päättynyt, kun vertailuindeksi sulkeutuu 191 80 pistettä korkeammalla 6 420: llä 67: lla, hyppy 3 1 sekunnilla ja viemällä se korkeimmalle kuukaudelle FTSE 250, joka paranee Heijastaa kotimaista taloutta, on noussut 351 57 pistettä tai 2 5 sekuntia 14,319: een 03,16 41 Joten, alla kuvattu Mario Draghi ja EKP pysyvät korkotasoina pitkiä aikoja, mutta mitä tämä tarkoittaa Citigroupin taloustieteilijät yrittävät tulkita Draghi-koodia . Mitä EKP tarkoittaa pitkällä aikavälillä Kannatamme vähintään 12-18 kuukautta, koska se ei vastaisi vain toukokuuhun sisältyvien kiinteäkorkoisten MRO-tarjouskilpailujen heinäkuun 14 maksuvalmiusohjauksen horisonttia, vaan myös vuoden 2014 loppua - henkilöstön makrotaloudellisiin ennusteisiin EKP voisi selkeyttää tätä kysymystä pidentämällä ennustejaksoa yli kaksivuotisen tavoiteajan yli syyskuussa, mutta todennäköisemmin joulukuussa, jolloin se julkaisee uuden EKP: n henkilöstöennusteen.16 22 Portugalin valtiovarainministeriö ja ulkoministerit merkitsevät sitä, että Fitch voisi alentaa maata uudelleen. Arvosteluyritys, joka arvostaa maata BB: ssä tai roskapostissa, totesi lausunnossaan. Poliittinen epävarmuus, joka vaikeutti politiikkaa Tai Portugalin finanssipoliittisen ja ulkoisen sopeuttamisen mate - riaali, heikentäisi painostusta maan suvereeneihin arvosanoihin. Meidän perustapamme on, että ohjelman toteuttaminen pysyy radalla. Maria Luis Albuquerquen nimittäminen uutena finanssipoliittisministerinä ehdottaa toivomusta Pääministeri Pedro Passos Coelho talouspoliittisesta jatkuvuudesta Albuquerque on ollut voimakas kannattaja ohjelman tavoitteiden saavuttamisessa edellisen, Vitor Gasparin, joka erosi maanantaina. Merkittävä merkitys on CDS-puolueen johtajan Paulo Portasin , nuorempi koalitio-osapuoli, antaakseen eronsa vastauksena Albuquerquen kokoukseen pääministeri Coelho kieltäytyi hyväksymästä Portasin eroamista ja Bloomberg raportoi torstaina, että nämä kaksi tapaavat keskustelemaan siitä, että koalitiohallituksen kannalta olisi toimiva ratkaisu. CDS: n tiedottaja oli kertoi keskiviikkona sanoneen, että kaksi muuta hallituksen ministerit CDS puolue ei jättäisi hallitusta Opposition puolueet ovat vaatineet varhaisia yleisiä vaaleja Lopullinen poliittinen tulos on edelleen epävarma. Poliittinen kriisi on lisännyt Portugalin valtion joukkovelkakirjalainojen tuottoa korkeammalla, mikä horjuttaa suvereenin suunnitelman päästä täysin takaisin joukkovelkakirjamarkkinoille. tarvitsevat edelleen virallista tukea BB: n luokitus perustuu siihen oletukseen, että tämä tuki tulee esille.16 02 Aiemmin tänään pääministeri David Cameron toivoi, että Battersea Power Station aloitti 8 miljardin euron kehityksen. Britannian pääministeri David Cameron ja Najib Razak, Malesian pääministeri, oikein, puhui Battersea-voimalaitoksen kokouksessa Lontoossa torstaina Photo AP. Tapahtumassa, Cameron sanoi. Tämä on hieno päivä Battersea Power Stationin kehittäminen on ollut kauan aikaa menossa Se pysähtyi tuottamaan voimaa 30 vuotta sitten ja se on kestänyt kauas päästä pois maasta. Se tarvitsi apuasi. Boris Johnson ilmoitti, että Battersea Power Station tuottaa uudelleen. CBI on eri inkarnaatioissa onnistunut saamaan lähes kaikki suuret puhelut väärin. 1920-luvulla se halusi palauttaa kultaan ennen sodanjälkeä. 1930-luvulla se Oli kiitosta 1940-luvulla, se oli usein kansallistamista 1950-luvulla se oli valtion suunnittelua varten 1960-luvulla se oli kolmikantaisten työmarkkinasuhteiden vuoksi 1970-luvulla hintakontrolli oli 1980-luvulla ERM: lle. 1990-luku oli euron suhteen. Nyt sen johtajat poistavat täsmälleen samanlaisen diskreditoituneen linjan EU: n jäsenyyden puolesta Britannian ei pidä ryhtyä samaan asemaan kuin Norja, väittää CBI: n pääjohtaja John Cridlandin. Ongelmat niille, jotka ovat Norjan maat YK: n mielestä paras paikka maailmalle syntyy Vaikka Norjan suhteet EU: hun eivät ole täydellisiä, lähes kukaan ei halua vaihtaa sitä täysjäsenyydelle Vähintään 79 8 prosenttia norjalaisista vastustaa Liittymisvalmisteluun Kyllä-kampanja on hyväksynyt tappion ja suljetun myymälän Cridland tekee niin moniin EU-jäsenyyden kannattajiin, jotka mainitsevat eurooppalaisen norjalaisen parlamentaarisen edustajan kuin 79,8 prosenttia sen sijaan, että hän olisi edustava.15 21 Taloustiedottaja Philip Aldrick kertoo Carneyn interventio näytti vastaukseksi pelkoihin siitä, että markkinat etenivät itsestään. Suotuiset tuotot ovat nousseet ylös, koska Yhdysvaltain keskuspankki laukaisi toukokuun lopulla markkinoiden paniikkia ehdottamalla, että se harkitsisi elvytysohjelmansa purkamista. Carney näyttää viittaavan Tämä kaavio näyttää 10-vuotisen kullan tuoton, joka on muuttunut huomattavasti viime kuukausien aikana, etenkin toukokuun lopulta, jolloin Yhdysvaltain keskuspankki uskoi pelkäämään, että amerikkalainen määrällinen keventäminen pienenee. 10 Vaikka pankkikorot ovat jonkin aikaa kiinni, monet analyytikot odottavat, että rahapolitiikka hidastuu ensi kuussa. Trevor Greetham varojen kohdentamisen johtaja Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Uskomme, että olemme melkein varmoja siitä, että lisäävät helpotusta elokuusta lähtien, kun MPC äänestää vielä määrittelemättömien välikynnysten perusteella. Odotan, että George Osborne pyytää pankkia helpottamaan rahapolitiikkaa, kunnes työttömyysaste on 6 5 prosenttiyksikköä tai Kun inflaatio-odotukset pysyvät hallinnassa. Tällainen kehys olisi tehokas sekä taloudellisesta että poliittisesta näkökulmasta. Englannin keskuspankki lupaa pitää peruskorot alhaisena huomattavan pitkään, lisäisi luottamusta ja se istuisi useiden hallituksen politiikkojen rinnalle jonka tarkoituksena on kiinnittää kiinnelainoja edullisempaan suuntaan. Ranskalainen voi nyt sanoa, että hän on antanut pankin tehtäväksi luoda puoli miljoonaa uutta työpaikkaa. Annalisa Piazza of Newedge - strategia. Tänään julkilausuma selkeästi jättää oven avoimeksi edelleen. Nyt Carney näyttää painuneen suuntaan enemmän avoimia viestintävälineitä. Philip Shaw Investecin mielestä siellä on vielä 50bn kullattu ostoja ensi kuussa. On näkemyksemme on edelleen, että e-valiokunta käynnistää QE: n uudelleen ensi kuussa. Vaikka myöntäisimme, että viimeaikaisten indikaattorien dynamiikka on viime aikoina ollut huomattavasti positiivisempi, niillä on, kuten MPC: n lausunnossa mainittiin, olleet pitkälti yhdenmukaisia komitean näkemysten kanssa toukokuun inflaatiokertomuksessa. näkemyksemme perustelut seuraavasti1. BoE: n inflaatioennusteet saattavat näkyä selvästi alle 2 prosenttiyksikköä elokuussa ilman suurempaa virikkeitä.2 Yhdistyneen kuningaskunnan talous on viime aikoina osoittanut elämän merkkejä ennen kuin se joutuu kohtaamaan riskejä. Näin voidaan toisaalta vähentää antamalla kasvua suuremmalle vetokyvylle nyt.3 nousevat kullatut tuotot ja swap-kurssit aiheuttavat riskejä kiinteän aikavälin asuntolainojen korottamisesta ja asuntomarkkinoiden elpymisestä, mikä näkyy nykyisessä MPC-lausunnossa.4 ja paranee, kasvunäkymät näyttävät jälleen heikompina historiallisilta standardeilta, kuten julkilausuma huomautti. Yrittäessään saavuttaa eloisemman vauhdin BKT: n kasvuun, MPC voi päästä pois lähes nollaverokannasta Ennemmin kuin muuten, kysymys, jota odotamme entistä tärkeämmäksi aikanaan.14 51 Mutta kaikki eivät ole samaa mieltä tänään Bank of England - päätöksestä. MPC: n jäsenet Danny Blanchflower ja Andrew Sentance ovat siirtyneet Twitterin välille toistensa kanssa mitään uutta nämä kaksi jälkeen pankin ilmoitus. ltnoframe gtTwitter Andrew Sentance - Inflaation on tarkoitus nousta, ja BoE lausuma kylmää vettä nopeus nousee Melko nuhainen signaali MPC: n Britannian säästäjille lt noframe gt. ltnoframe gtTwitter Danny Blanchflower - lta kohde tyhjä gt: n asentaminen GT: n suuri uutinen Ison-Britannian työttömille, mutta varsinkin miljoona nuorta maailmassa, jota he tarvitsevat, on nopeuden nousu lt noframe gt. ltnoframe gtTwitter Andrew Sentance - lta kohde tyhjä gt DBlanchflower lt gt Ei ole hyvä uutinen kasvustöistä, Pelkään säästyvien tulojen masentavaa tuloa, joka puristaa kuluttajamenoja tuodun inflaation avulla. Lt noframe gt. ltnoframe gtTwitter Danny Blanchflower - lta target tyhjä gt asentance lt a gt w hy tekevät asioista pahempaa nostamalla korotuksia, jotka tunnemme 1 nousu epäonnistuneista sattuu 4 kertaa enemmän kuin 1 nousu inflaatiossa välitän unemp lt noframe GT. London s FTSE 100 noussut takaisin edellä psykologisesti 6 400 merkki tänä iltapäivänä merkkejä keskuspankkien Yhdistyneessä kuningaskunnassa ja Eurooppa joutuu pitämään kiinni alhaisilla koroilla. Vertailuindeksin johtavien osakkeiden hypätä peräti 197 18 pistettä tai 3 2kpl, tänään iltapäivällä ja oli kaupankäynnin 2 8kpl korkeampi klo 14:15. Tämä tarkoittaa, että sininen sirut ovat päinvastaiset kaikki jotka he kohtasivat keskiviikkona keskellä Portugalin poliittista vakautta ja Egyptin levottomuuksia huolissaan, palaamaan tasolle, joka on viimein nähty kesäkuun alkupuolella. Markkinoilla on ollut paineita aina toukokuun lopusta lähtien, kun Federal Reserve - edustaja Ben Bernanke ilmoitti Yhdysvaltojen keskuspankin Pankki voisi alkaa pienentää sen määrällistä keventämisohjelmaa. FTSE 100, joka oli saavuttanut 13 408 27: n korkean tason, laski tuloksena. Englannin pankin tänään tekemät ehdotukset, joiden mukaan rahapolitiikka oli epätodennäköistä Että lähitulevaisuudessa kiristettäisiin voimakkaampi nousu hieman keskipäivän jälkeen, kun taas Euroopan keskuspankin pääjohtaja Mario Draghi, joka ilmoitti, että korkoja voitaisiin laskea vielä pidemmälle, näki FTSE 100: n korotuksen myöhemmin myöhemmin iltapäivällä. FTSE 100 nousi 3 2 kappaletta ennen hieman laskemista.14 27 Sitä kysymyksiin ja painajaan on ohi, alle tunnissa, mikä on jokseenkin epätavallista. Euroopan markkinat olivat todellakin ripustaneet jokaisen sanansa ja ottaneet ylös. FTSE 100 nousi peräti 3 2 kappaletta toisessa vaiheessa, mutta on laskenut hieman ja on nyt 2 6 kappaletta. Saksassa Dax on jopa 2 1 kappaletta. Ranskassa Cac on 2 2 kappaletta. Espanjassa Ibex on jopa 2 5 kappaletta. Portugalissa PSI 20 on jopa 3 8pc.14 23 Draghi kysytään vielä Portugalista ja siitä, pitäisikö sen käyttää OMT-ohjelmaa. Draghi vastaa, että me kaikki tiedämme OMT-olosuhteet. OMT: n tarkoituksena on vastata riskiin euroalueella. Niin minä jätän sen. Hän sanoi aiemmassa vastauksessa kysymykseen OMT: stä, että sitä ei ole otettu käyttöön hallituksen toimien täydentämiseksi. Se on ollut melkein vuosi siitä lähtien, kun EKP käynnisti avoimet rahapoliittiset operaatiot OMT: Rajoittamaton joukkovelkakirjojen osto-ohjelma, joka on suunniteltu tarjoamaan täysin tehokas vastasuoruus euroryhmille. Ensimmäiset muutokset tehdään yksittäisten jäsenten avuksi. 14 07 Portugalin kysymys kesti pidempään kuin odotin Mikä on ongelma - liikaa säästöä vai pitäisikö he tehdä enemmän. Draghi vastaa hitaasti ja huomaavasti ja on selvästi varovainen vastauksessaan Hän sanoo. I Mielestäni Portugali on saavuttanut erittäin merkittäviä tuloksia Se on ollut tuskallinen reitti, ja saavutetut tulokset ovat olleet melko merkittäviä, huomattavia, ellei erinomaisia. Meidän on annettava tämä luottamus hallitukselle ja varattava ministeri Vitor Gaspar, joka on juuri eronnut. Me olemme varmoja uudesta ministeristä Maria Luis Albuquerquesta ja kaikesta, mitä tiedämme hänen persoonallisuudestaan, hänen jatkuvasta osallistumisestaan euroryhmän kokouksiin - niin Portug Al on turvallisessa kädessä. En halua kommentoida Portugalin poliittista tilannetta, koska se ei ole työni.13 03 Draghi sanoo, että on liian aikaista spekuloida eteenpäin suuntautuvan ohjauksen viestinnän kehitystä. Olemme edenneet suurta edistysaskelta eteenpäin. Tämä ennakointi ohjaa viime kuukausina rahan määrän kiristymistä kurssi - käyrän eri osissa. Tämä näyttäisi merkitsevän sitä, että EKP antaa ohjeita rauhanomaisille markkinoille.13 59 Draghi vahvistaa, että jotkut EKP: n jäsenet kannattivat korkoa ja jotkut eivät olleet. Hän sanoi, että keskusteluja leikkaamisesta oli olemassa laaja-alaisia keskusteluja. Siksi yksimielinen suostumus esitettiin eteenpäin. Hän sanoi, että molemmilla puolilla oli argumentteja leikata ja säilyttää hinnat. On ollut jonkin verran rahapolitiikan tiukentumista tärkeimmissä raha-muuttujissa ja sillä oli myös heikko rahapoliittinen kehitys. Toisaalta olemme nähneet, että perusnäkemyksemme asteittaisesta elpymisestä vuoden loppuun mennessä näyttää vahvistuneen pehmeillä indikaattoreilla positiivisella puolella. Joten EKP voi sanoa, että EKP voi vähentää kaikkia kolmea verokantaa - mukaan lukien sen talletuskorko, joka on jo nolla. Tämä tarkoittaa, että EKP tarkastelee negatiivisia korkoja.13 55 Draghia pyydetään vahvistamaan, kuinka kauan pidennetty aika on. Hän vastaa siihen, että pankkikursseja arvioidaan kolmesta asiasta: inflaatiosta, talouden tilasta ja rahapoliittisesta dynamiikasta.13 47 Draghi kysyi, antaako hän ohjausta, kun Carney on tehnyt. Draghi tekee huoneesta naurun, kun hän vastaa - sinä selkeästi ei kuunnellut lausuntoani. Hallintoneuvosto teki ennennäkemättömiä toimia antaakseen ohjeita tavalla, jota ei ole tehty aiemmin. Hallintoneuvosto odottaa kaikkien korkojen pysyvän nykyisellä tai alemmalla tasolla pitkään aikaan. Tämä on ensimmäinen Aikaisemmin hallitusneuvosto on sanonut niin. Hän lisää, että oli vain sattumaa, että tämä ennakoiva neuvonta annettiin samana päivänä kuin Carney antoi. Hän sanoi myös, että äänestys ylläpitää hintoja oli yksimielinen.13 43 Euroopan markkinat ovat kun Draghi vahvistaa, että hinnat pysyvät matalina pitempään. Kysymysten ajankohta.13 39 Draghi sanoo, että inflaatioriskien odotetaan olevan jonkin verran epävakaa.13 36 Draghi sanoo, että rahoitusmarkkinoiden merkittävä parannus viime kesänä tulisi aloittaa Reaalitalous.13 34 Draghi sanoo näkevänsä elpymisen loppuvuodesta ja vuoteen 2014.Ratsit pysyvät nykyisellä tasollaan 0 5pc tai jopa alemmilla tasoilla pitkään aikaan. Hän sanoo, että EKP: n rahapoliittinen asenne pysyy Niin ikään kuin tarvitaan.13 25 Mario Drahyn lehdistötilaisuus alkaa viiden minuutin kuluttua. Se vaikuttaa Euroopan markkinoihin samalla tavoin kuin Bank of England'n lausunto FTSE 100: stä - Yhdistyneen kuningaskunnan pääindeksi nousi Ja nyt on nyt 2 2pc.13 10 Vain palaamaan Yhdistyneen kuningaskunnan pankkipäätökseen nopeasti. Mark Carney on osoittanut, kuka on pomo Bankissa Kathleen Brooksin mukaan. Mark Carneyn ensimmäinen kokous Englannin pankin kuvernöörinä kääntyi Ulos olla enemmän joka oli tapahtumarikas kuin monet markkinat olivat odottaneet. Carney saattaa olla vain olleet töissä alle viikossa, mutta hän on ravistanut BOE: n viestintäponnistuksia jo julkaisemalla julkilausuman tänään tekemässään päätöksessä, se on selventänyt ennakoivaa ohjausta koskevaa kysymystä ja myös Että tulevaisuuden omaisuuden osto pysyy BOE: n pöydässä. Tämä esittelee uuden, avoimen ja selkeän BOE: n, joka on Mervyn Kingin taakse menneisyys. 13 00 EKP: n toimintaa ei odotettu laajalti. . Tätä odotettiin laajalti. Painopiste on nyt Drahin sanojen kohdalla, mutta retoriikka on hyvin keskittynyt. 50 EKP: n presidentti Mario Draghi pitää lehdistötilaisuuden klo 13.30 Yhdistyneen kuningaskunnan aikaa keskuspankin päätöksen pidä.12 45 RAJOITUS Euroopan keskuspankki on äänestänyt pitävänsä tärkeimmän peruskoronsa 0 5pc.12 31 Pound on laskenut voimakkaasti dollaria vastaan. Sky taloustieteilijä Ed Conway tweets. ltnoframe gtTwitter Ed Conway - Pound on menettänyt lähes kaksi Senttiä dollaria vastaan Suuri, iso päivänsisäinen lasku Keskustele yr yr merkki, Mark lta tavoite tyhjä lt a gt lt noframe gt. GBP v dollari torstaina kaupankäynnin trading.12 25 pankin lausunnon, jonka voit lukea kokonaan täällä se myös sanoo, että sen lisäksi inflaatio Raportti elokuussa, osa sen tehtävistä on arvioida tapausta, jossa annetaan ohjeita eteenpäin. Tämä analyysi vaikuttaisi merkittävästi komitean poliittisiin keskusteluihin elokuussa. Analyytikot ovat lukeneet tänään lausunnon, joka on ohjeita siitä, että tulevia ohjeita tulee. Brian Hilliard, Societe Generale. Ei ole mitään toimintaa, mutta vihjeitä toiminta BoE sanoo, että markkinatilanteen nouseva nousu painaa näkymiä, ei ole perusteltua, ja sitten se sanoo, että tämä analyysi vaikuttaisi merkittävästi elokuussa käytävään keskusteluun. Tämä on suuri merkki siitä, että he tekevät ensi kuussa eteenpäin ohjeita, isoja ja isoja vihjeitä, ja markkinat reagoivat vastaavasti. Jens Larsen, RBC Capital Markets. Olen yllättynyt siitä, että he julkaisivat lausunnon, joka varoittaa meitä pääasiassa e-ohjeet, jotka tulevat elokuussa. He ovat sanoneet, että kotimaisen talouden viimeaikainen kehitys ei ole perusteltua tulevan keinon noustua nousuun. Joten antamalla selkeästi ohjata markkinoille, että he eivät ajattele, että koron nousu on joka on johdonmukainen niiden poliittisten aikomusten kanssa. Se on johdanto tulevaisuudennäkymistä, jota voimme nähdä ensi kuussa. Alan Clarke, ScotiaBank. En usko, että se huutaa, että he aikovat liikkua politiikassa mielestäni kaikkein todennäköisimmin Ne käyttävät etukäteisohjeita ja käyttävät sitä sitten, jotta markkinakorkot pysyisivät vähäisinä eteenpäin.12 17 Markkinat näyttävät suhtautuvan etukäteisopetukseen ja ovat hypänneet pankin ilmoituksen jälkeen. FTSE 100 on nyt 1 84pc.12 08 Ei puristusta Konferenssi oli ollut huhu kiertäen tänä aamuna, mutta Carney on tehnyt merkin antamalla joitakin eteenpäin ohjeita yhdessä ilmoituksen. Nykyinen Yhdistyneen kuningaskunnan talousnäkymät tarkoittaa, että ei tule pankkikorkotasoa lähitulevaisuudessa. Stateme Nt sanoi. Komitean näkemyksen mukaan pankkikorkon odotettua tulevaa kehitystä ei ollut perusteltua kotimaisen talouden viimeaikaisen kehityksen vuoksi. Rahapolitiikkakomitea totesi myös, että inflaatio nousee lähiaikoina sen nykyinen taso 2 7pc. ltnoframe gtTwitter jeremy varoittaja - Alle viikossa työhön, lta kohde tyhjä gt Carney gt a gt tekee hänen läsnäolonsa tuntui puukotus eteenpäin ohjausta Nouseva korko odotukset ei warrented lt noframe gt.12 00 RATKAISU Bank Englannissa on äänestetty pitämään pankkikorkoa 0 5 prosentilla ja pitämään raha-ärsykeohjelmansa 375 miljardilla. 54 Ennen tätä nopea tarkastelu markkinat - homebuilder-osakkeet ovat merkittäviä nousukeskuksia Lontoon osakemarkkinoilla, kun Redrow kasvaa 5: llä 4 prosentilla ja Taylor Wimpey 5 1 korkeampi, sekä kasvattanut rohkaisemalla kaupankäynnin päivityksiä. Näiden kahden rakentajan äänet samoin kuin Halifaxin tiedot, jotka osoittavat, että Yhdistyneen kuningaskunnan asuntojen hinnat nousivat korkeimmalle tasolle lähes kolmessa vuodessa kesäkuussa, on lisännyt muita sektori Bellway on saavuttanut 2 5pc ja Barratt Developments on asettanut 2 4pc.11 50 T miinus 10 minuuttia, kunnes hyvin, ei muutoksia epäilen, mutta me kaikki odottamme perääntyneellä hengityksellä ensimmäisen MPC rahapoliittisen päätöksen nojalla uusi johtaja Mark Carney.11 38 siellä on ollut muutamia onnistuneita joukkovelkakirjamyyntiä Euroopassa tänään. Kaupungin poliittinen myllerrys ei näytä vaikuttavan julkisuuteen sen jälkeen, kun se on helposti saavuttanut tavoitemääränsä. Valtiovarainministeriö kasvatti 4 miljardia euroa myymällä kolmen ja viiden vuoden joukkovelkakirjalainoja, vaikka hinnat olivat hieman ylöspäin. kolmivuotisesta paperista nousi 2 875 kappaletta 2 706 kappaletta, kun se myytiin viimeisen kuukauden aikana. Vuosittainen vuosi oli hinnaltaan 3 792 kappaletta, noin 20 peruspistettä enemmän kuin Espanjan viiden vuoden velan viimeinen myynti kesäkuussa. RIA Capital Marketsin Nick Stamenkovicin joukkovelkakirjalainojen strategiasta. Viime portugalinkielinen korjaus on parantanut espanjalaisten joukkovelkakirjojen houkuttelevuutta ja huutokauppa on otettu erittäin hyvin. Portugalin näkymät ovat hyvin pilvistä. Mikä on mielenkiintoista, että Italia ja Espanja ovat On ollut suhteellisen kovaa. Tartunta on hyvin rajallinen ja merkki siitä, että sijoittajat pitävät näitä ongelmia hyvin paikallisina eivätkä näe heitä uhkaavana euroalueelle. Myös Ranska oli onnistunut joukkovelkakirjamyynti, joka houkutteli lähes 8 mrd. .11 21 Odotamme kärsivällisesti Ison-Britannian ja EKP: n poliittisia päätöksiä, Draghi ja Carney toivovat, että he eivät sittenkään sammuttaisi Australian keskuspankin pääjohtajan tekemää. Glenn Stevens lähetti Aussie-dollarin, joka syöksyi kolmivuotiseen matalaan Kun hän vitsaili puheenvuoron, jonka mukaan pankin johtokunta harkitsi pitkään aikaan, ennen kuin jäi käteisrahan vakaana kuukausittaisessa kokouksessaan tiistaina kommentti, joka aiheutti dollarin pudottamisen Yhdysvaltain dollariin 37 senttiä. Huomautus sai myös jotkut pankki-ekonomistit muuttaa ennusteitaan ja ennustaa korkojen leikkausta elokuussa. Reserve Bank pyrki kuitenkin korjaamaan vahingot tänään ja vaati, että kommentti oli kevyesti kääntyvä, mikä auttoi nostamaan dollaria ja pani pankit vetäytymään raaka niiden tarkistetut ennusteet. Bankin varapääjohtaja Philip Lowe sanoi rahoitusmarkkinat ja tiedotusvälineet olleet tulkineet virheellisesti kommentteja, joita ei pitänyt ottaa vakavasti. Heidän oli tarkoitus olla kevytmielinen huomautus sen jälkeen, mitä Stevens kertoo minulle, oli erittäin kevyt johdatus, herra Lowe kertoi tänään Sydneyssä pidettävässä konferenssissa. Australian s Reserve Bank. Szu Pingin kuvernööri Glen Stevens Chan-raportit. Toimialaryhmän johtaja John J. Cridland totesi olevansa Britannian intressi jäädä EU: hun, jotta se voisi olla mahdollisuus uudistaa Eurooppaa. Meidän ei tarvitse pelätä, että ne menevät pidemmälle euroalueeseen integroitumiselle ja että niillä on oikeat institutionaaliset suojatoimet, joita emme tarvitse sisällyttää euroalueen ryhmään vaikuttaakseen päätöksentekoon laajemmilla yhtenäismarkkinoilla, sanoi Cridland. On kuitenkin selvää, että Meidän on oltava laajemmassa unionissa, jotta voisimme esittää mahdollisuuden uudistaa Euroopan unionia. Keskustelu konservatiivisesta EU: n kansanäänestyssäännöstä perjantaina Cridland kehotti euroskeptisiä kansanedustajia pohtimaan Britannian suhteita EU: hun kovaa tosiseikkaa ja Objektiivinen analyysi, ei tunne tai ontto retoriikka. Times kertoi Timesissä, että Cridland väitti, että vaikka Norjan ja Sveitsin kaltaiset maat saivat monia EU-etuja ilman jäsenyyttä, oli myös selviä haittoja. Jotkut pitävät Norjaa tai Sveitsiä kuin ihmelääke Yhdistyneen kuningaskunnan eurooppalaiselle päänsärytykselle Mutta puoliväli talo ei ole vastaus, hän sanoi. Norjalaiset ja sveitsiläiset eivät ole kehittäneet suhteita, jotka ovat täysin tyydyttäviä joko Brysselille tai itselleen ja nämä mallit eivät todellakaan toimisi meidän puolestamme.10 40 Koska Itsenäisyyspäivä Yhdysvalloissa on onnellinen 4. heinäkuuta, kaikki markkinat ovat kaikki Draidissa säästää päivää. Kaupankäynnin volyymit ovat kevyet tällä hetkellä, mutta saattavat antaa mahdollisuuden haihtua myöhemmin, kun kauppiaat roikkuvat EKP: n toimitusjohtajan jokaiseen sanaan. Matt Basi, Yhdistyneen kuningaskunnan myyntiyrityksen päällikkö, CMC Markets UK, sanoi. odotettavissa, kun otetaan huomioon Portugalin levottomuudet ja niiden levottomuudet viime viikolla, sillä italialainen pyrkii vakuuttamaan markkinoiden, että yhtenäisvaluutta ei ole vielä laskenut kaaokseen. Hän odottaa hiljaista iltapäivää, kun keskuspankin ilmoitus on tullut. Dražas pelastamaan Graffiti, joka kuvaa Draghi ja saksalainen liittokansleri Angela Merkel ulkomaiden aidan ympärillä uuden Frankfurtin keskusyksikön pääkonttoriin Photo Reuters.10 28 Centigin osakkeet Egyptiläinen kultainen tuottaja on noussut FTSE 250: n 14 sekunnissa 6 viime yön vallankaappauksen uutisissa, ja sijoittajat toivovat, että hallituksen muutos on hyvä asia meneillään olevan oikeudenkäynnin yhteydessä, joka on kyseenalaistanut Centamin oikeudet kaivokseen maassa. Citigroup pysyy varovaisena tänä aamuna, toistaen neutraalin luokituksensa ja asettamatta tavoitehintaa poliittisen epävakauden takia. Takaisin FTSE 100: een Reckitt Benckiser on laskenut 1 1 pistettä kilpailuongelmista Ruotsin Orexo on varmistanut Yhdysvaltain sääntelyviranomaisten hyväksynnän Zubsolville, riippuvuudelle joka vastaa Reckittin Suboxone.10 20 Rahoitusjohtamisviranomainen on kieltänyt lyhyeksi myyntiä kolmella portugalilaisella pankilla - Banco Comercial Portuguesilla, Banco Espirito Santoilla ja Sonae Industria. Short-myyjät pyrkivät voittamaan laskevilla markkinoilla myymällä lainattuja osakkeita tai joukkovelkakirjoja, Uskomaan, että niiden hinta laskee, ja sitten ne korvataan arvopapereilla, jotka on ostettu halvemmalla hinnalla. Kaupunkien sääntelijän siirtyminen tänä aamuna tulee Lisb s-rahoitusalan sääntelyviranomainen kieltäytyi myymästä neljää yritystä, mukaan lukien kolme pankkia, kun molemmat putosivat eilisen kaupankäynnin yli 10 prosenttiin. FCA: n kieltosopimus aloitettiin klo 8.00 ja päättyy tänä iltana 11 59 pm.09 54 Autojen myyntiautolla, the analysts don t think the brakes will be applied to the recovery any time soon. Richard Lowe head of retail wholesale at fx, said. What an incredible first half of the year Consumer appetite continues to motor, with new car sales rising for the 16th consecutive month The combination of good finance deals and more fuel efficient vehicles have encouraged sales, and there is no sign of this demand easing. Howard Archer analyst at IHS Global Insight, said. It is evident that private new car sales are being supported by attractive offers and packages, as well as by motorists desire to buy more fuel efficient cars at a time of relatively high petrol prices It is also likely that elevated employment and recently significantly higher consumer con fidence means that people are more prepared to replace aging cars.09 47 According to SMMT the best selling car was the Ford Fiesta, followed by the Ford Focus. Here is the full list for the month of the year and also year-to-date.09 44 It would appear to be a Good News Britain day. New car sales in Britain rose for the 16th consecutive month in June, jumping 13 4pc with a year earlier. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders SMMT said new car registrations increased to 214,957.Many buyers are returning to the market having held off on purchasing new cars, while attractive finance deals and more fuel-efficient models are also driving growth, SMMT said. Mike Baunton, SMMT interim chief executive, said. While there are still potential challenges ahead, recent robust growth suggests that the market is on course to perform well ahead of 2012 levels. Over the first half of the year, new car sales rose 10pc. UK new car sales.09 22 Low-cost airline easyJet is among the biggest risers in the FT SE 100 this morning, up 1 7pc in the wake of well-received June passenger numbers showing an increase of 1 9pc Oil services company Wood Group is another, boosted 1 6pc on news of it has own a three-year contract extension in the North Sea with Nexen Petroleum.09 16 Back in the UK, the latest Halifax House Price Index is out and shows that British house prices rose 0 6 pc in June from May and posted their sharpest annual increase in nearly three years in the second quarter June was the fifth consecutive month of house price rises. The number of mortgage approvals hit a three and-a-half-year high in May, after rising 7pc from the previous month to hit 58,200.Martin Ellis Halifax housing economist. Improved confidence in both the housing market and the economy, combined with a shortage of properties available for sale, appear to be pushing up house prices. He noted early indications that the government s Help to Buy equity loan scheme might be stimulating demand, but warned. Despite these si gns of improvement in the market, the still subdued economic background and weak income growth are expected to remain significant constraints on housing demand and activity during the second half of 2013.08 58 ECB president Mario Draghi will have to go further than just reassuring investors, but what ever he does today he won t dare rock the boat according to Eimear Daly, head of market analysis at Monex Europe She said. In today s press conference, Draghi will first reassure markets that a departure from easy monetary policy in the Eurozone is completely premature However, mounting political risks in the Eurozone are now adding to already elevated yield levels, so Draghi will need to do more than just reassure markets that policy won t change. It is likely Draghi will pull out the negative deposit rates trick again, warning markets that the central bank is not afraid to use them He will also reiterate that the ECB is actively considering using various conventional and non-conventional l iquidity tools, including help for SMEs. Draghi needs to convince bond markets that the ECB is biased towards easing, or risk having to use the OMT if yields continue to rise The OMT is a powerful device as long as it isn t used and no one discovers that the ECB doesn t actually have the money to bail out the whole EMU. Unfortunately the outcome of the ECB meeting will be all talk - Draghi won t dare rock the boat with a refinancing or deposit rate cut ahead of Germany s general election in September Germany is the Eurozone s biggest creditor and you always stand by your creditors in tough times.08 40 Here s Deutsche Bank on what is likely to be the main event of the day for traders in Europe, the ECB meeting. The near-unanimous consensus amongst economists including DB s is for no change in rates at today s ECB meeting For the record, only one economist is calling for a 25bp cut in the refi rate and no forecasters are calling for a cut in the deposit rate to negative territory DB s Wall and Moec do note that renewed financial market tensions even before the events in Portugal this week highlight risks of a policy easing, rates or otherwise As ever, Draghi s post-meeting comments will be a focus Wall and Moec expect Draghi to underline the ECB s easing bias and commitment to maintaining an accommodative stance as long as is needed Differentiating the policy stance from the Fed will be an objective. Outside of the ECB Draghi, with US markets shut today the spotlight will remain on continuing developments in Egypt and Portugal The BoE will also be meeting today in what will be Carney s first MPC. It s worth noting that with US markets closed today trading volumes in London are expected to be thin.08 31 A little bit of history is being made today aside from Carney s first rate decision in the UK. The first shovels are ready to get going at Battersea Power Station. David Cameron will join the Malaysian PM Najib Razak for the ground breaking ceremony at the iconic London site. L ast year a Malaysian consortium beat other contenders including Chelsea FC s Roman Abramovich with its plan for an 8bn multi-use regeneration project The consortium paid 400m for the site and, unlike former owners, have promised to actually deliver the project this time. More than 95pc of the 866 luxury flats were sold within days in one of the fastest pre-sales ever seen in London while the development is expected to create up to 25,000 jobs. Battersea Power Station.08 20 Some more corporate news. Construction group Balfour Beatty, the troubled infrastructure group, has won a 200m contract from Herefordshire County Council to maintain roads, street lighting and cleaning, and parks for 10 years. Elsewhere, Simon Murray the former chairman of Glencore has been appointed as the new chairman of Gulf Keystone Petrol. Finally, the low-cost carrier easyJet has reported a 1 9pc rise in passenger numbers in June but added that it had to cancel 585 flights compared to just 22 flights in the same mon th last year because of French air traffic control strikes.08 15 Corporate news is a bit thin on the ground this morning and it is all about construction. First up housebuilder Taylor Wimpey has unveiled an impressive first half trading update with an order book of 1 3bn, up 35pc from last year. The company says it expects a first half operating profit margin of more than 13pc. Cancellations are low and houseprices are up - the average sale on private completions is up 8pc to 205,000.The group, which will publish full first half results on July 31, says the growth has been driven by increased customer confidence and by the Government measures , including Help to Buy. Jefferies analyst Anthony Codling said. If ever we need proof that the housing market is recovering, we have it now.08 05 After sliding 1 2pc on Wednesday amid the turmoil in Portugal and Greece, the FTSE 100 has staged a partial recovery today by advancing 44 points, or 0 7pc, to 6,274 at the open.07 50 With weather forecaster s predicting that temperatures in the south of England could top 30 degrees for the next two weeks, no-one wants to think about the cold and snow and festive season It is surely too early to start thinking about Christmas O no its not says Waitrose maybe not quite in such panto style. The supermarket chain has announced plans to sell Christmas trees for the first time this year in a festive range, including Heston Blumenthal party food, personalised hampers and luxurious anti-ageing cream. Waitrose said Nordman Firs from the Black Isles north of Inverness would be available for shoppers as it unveiled its line-up for Christmas 2013.He said the decision to stock Christmas trees, at 1 25 metres or 90cm tall, was party with Waitrose s evolution into gardening, the second most popular hobby of its customers, behind food. Only 173 days until Christmas.07 30 There will also be a rate decision from the European Central Bank today 12 45pm UK time. Given the political turmoil in Portugal and the ri sing cost of borrowing for the peripheral eurozone countries, there is growing pressure on the central bank to follow in the US Fed s footsteps and set out a clear timetable for its monetary policy to reassure investors and calm fears. Unlike the MPC, the ECB will give a press conference shortly after announcing its policy decisions and all eyes and ears will be paying close attention to the language used by ECB president Mario Draghi. Berenberg bank economist Christian Schulz says markets need reassurance. The ECB needs to reassure markets that it is not going to try to get ahead of the Fed and tighten even earlier, so it s all about guidance as far as that is possible at the ECB. ING economist Carsten Brzeski added. The challenging balancing act is that he has to talk up the economy, he has to send a clear message to markets that the OMT bond-buying plan could still be used, giving financial markets confidence. At the same time, he has to keep up pressure on governments to continue their r eforms He cannot promise too much, he cannot be too confident because otherwise he would again lower the pressure on governments. An acceleration in eurozone inflation in June and stronger-than-expected consumer spending in France and Germany reinforce the ECB s projection for a slow eurozone recovery late this year, leaving it little grounds to justify a rate cut now. It is expected that there will be no change to the bank rates or its monetary policy. Last week, Draghi said ECB policy would remain accommodative and that the bank stood ready to act again if needed But he added that it has done as much as it can to stabilise markets and support the economy , pressing governments to reform. ECB president Mario Draghi.07 20 Looking ahead to today there are a few things to keep an eye out for. Firstly, Mark Carney is leading his first policy meeting in UK It started yesterday but later today, at midday to be exact, we will find out if there have been any changes to the bank rate or QE. It is un likely to be a momentous meeting and it is widely expected that both the bank rate 0 5pc and monetary policy 375bn will be kept on hold. No changes are expected until August s meeting at the earliest. That is when Carney could begin to push the central bank to try new ways to achieve escape velocity in Britain s recovery, which has just started to show some long-awaited momentum after years of economic stagnation. Manufacturing and services sector surveys this week capped a run of stronger-than-expected data which has prompted many economists to predict growth in the second quarter could hit 0 5pc. George Buckley at Deutsche Bank said the surveys were close to the level at which, in the past, the central bank has eventually tightened monetary policy. Neville Hill an economist at Credit Suisse, said. It s nothing short of ridiculous how the UK numbers have turned around ahead of Mr Carney s arrival, suggesting he s got very lucky timing. The case for the bank doing something on Thursday is rea lly pretty limited. But whatever the outcome today, we will not actually know how Carney has voted until the minutes are published on July 17.Mark Carney, new Governor of the Bank Of England, on his first day at work in London.07 15 Now for a look at The Telegraph s business section. It leads with the story that is sure to make Mark Carney happy in his first week as governor of the Bank of England Britain s powerhouse services sector grew at the fastest pace in two years last month completing an economic hat trick after upbeat manufacturing and construction data this week and putting the country well on the road to recovery. James Quinn reports that Ian Hannam, the former JP Morgan Cazenove JPMC banker attempting to clear his name has admitted that one of the emails which sits at the heart of the Financial Services Authority s market abuse case against him may well have been factually incorrect, and may have been written purely to woo a possible suitor for his client. There is also some M A around Graham Ruddick reports that a collection of private equity giants are battling it out to acquire British greeting card retailer Card Factory It is understood that Cinven, Advent International, KKR and Clayton Dubilier Rice, which last year bought discount retailer B M Retail, are among the parties interested in Card Factory.07 10 Here is a quick look at the business pages. The Financial Times carries a front page story reporting that the government of the gas-rich state of Qatar is rethinking the way it invests billions of dollars of state funds in property in an attempt to introduce a commercial rigour to its dealmaking and to end its reputation as a trophy investor. The FT s Companies and Markets section leads with the story that the brother of Bernard Madoff, the fraudster responsible for the largest Ponzi scheme in history invoked his Fifth Amendment rights more than 50 times on Wednesday, as he refused to answer questions in the High Court about Madoff s London operations. T he Times reports that the bankrupt furniture chain Dwell has been rescued by its founder although customers left out of pocket by its collapse are yet to discover their fate. The Guardian is reporting that an Irish parliamentary committee has voted down calls for multinational companies to be grilled in Dublin about their tax affairs, in the wake of a string of controversies at firms such as Google and Apple which use the Irish tax regime. The Daily Mail reports the chief executives of scandal-scarred miners ENRC and Bumi face a grilling from MPs amid fears that corporate governance failures are damaging London s standing as a financial centre.07 00 Good morning and welcome to our daily business and markets live blog, your one stop shop for all the breaking business stories of the day. Business news and markets as it happened July 4, 2013.The Mayor of London, who heavily opposes expansion at Heathrow, has upped his campaign for a super airport elsewhere in the capital by commissioning res earch showing that only a four-runway airport will provide enough connections to regions such as Asia and Latin America to allow Britain to compete effectively on trade. The detailed research, drawn up by advisors at York Aviation, claims that to get the connections Britain needs to keep up with international rivals, London needs four runways operating efficiently in one place rather than spread haphazardly across the south-east. ltnoframe gtTwitter Ed Conway - Today biggest one-day rise in the FTSE 100 since November 2011 Up 3 1 - the equivalent of amp 16349bn The markets seem to like Mark Carney lt noframe gt.17 03 Commenting on today s market movers, William Nicholls a dealer at Capital Spreads, said. Wow, look at the FTSE go The BOE left current interest rates and QE unchanged at lunchtime today and this re-assurance that the new boss Mark Carney won t be taking away the financial first aid kit has buoyed markets in one of the biggest risk on days for some time It will be interesting to see how the nine votes were cast but this information won t become available until next month Spread betting clients have sold into the move heavily hoping that the move is nothing but an over-reaction.16 52 A quite spectacular day for the FTSE 100 has come to an end, with the benchmark index closing 191 80 points higher at 6,421 67, a jump of 3 1pc and taking it to the highest level in a month The FTSE 250 which better reflects the domestic economy, has climbed 351 57 points, or 2 5pc, to 14,319 03.16 41 So, Mario Draghi pictured, below and the ECB will keep interest rates low for an extended period of time , but what does that mean Economists at Citigroup attempt to decipher Draghi s code. What does the ECB mean by an extended period of time We would argue at least 12-18 months as it would not only match the Jul-14 liquidity guidance horizon for full allocation fixed rate MRO tenders provided in May, but also the 2014 end-point of the staff macroeconomic projections The ECB could c larify this issue by lengthening the forecast horizon to beyond the standard two years timescale as early as September but more likely in December when it releases the new set of ECB staff projections.16 22 The resignations of Portugal s finance and foreign ministers mean the country could be downgraded by Fitch again The rating agency, which rates the country at BB - or junk - said in a statement. Prolonged political uncertainty that hampered policy formation and execution, or material underperformance of Portugal s fiscal and external adjustment, would put pressure on the country s sovereign ratings Our base case remains that programme implementation will stay on track. The appointment of Maria Luis Albuquerque as the new finance minister suggests a desire by Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho for economic policy continuity Albuquerque has been a strong advocate of meeting programme targets through the policies of her predecessor, Vitor Gaspar, who resigned on Monday. More significant i s the subsequent move by Paulo Portas, leader of the CDS party, the junior coalition member, to offer his resignation in response to Albuquerque s appointment Prime Minister Coelho refused to accept Portas s resignation, and Bloomberg reported on Thursday that the two would meet to discuss securing a viable solution for the coalition government A CDS spokesman was reported on Wednesday as saying that the two other government ministers from the CDS party would not leave the government Opposition parties have called for early general elections The final political outcome remains uncertain. The political crisis has pushed Portuguese sovereign bond yields higher, upsetting the sovereign s plan to fully re-enter the bond markets Our existing assumption that Portugal will need further official support remains The BB rating is underpinned by our assumption that this support will be forthcoming.16 02 Earlier today, prime minister David Cameron hailed the start of an 8bn redevelopment of Batters ea Power Station. British Prime Minister David Cameron and Najib Razak, the Prime Minister of Malaysia, right, talk during a meeting at Battersea Power Station in London on Thursday Photo AP. Speaking at the event, Mr Cameron said. This is a great day It has been a long time to get the Battersea Power Station development going It stopped producing power 30 years ago and it has taken this long to get off the ground It needed your help. Here s Mayor of London Boris Johnson declaring that Battersea Power Station is generating again. The CBI, in its various incarnations, has managed to get virtually every big call wrong In the 1920s, it wanted to go back to gold at the pre-war rate In the 1930s, it was for appeasement In the 1940s, it was often for nationalisation In the 1950s it was for state planning In the 1960s, it was for tripartite industrial relations In the 1970s, it was for price controls In the 1980s, it was for the ERM In the 1990s it was for the euro. Now, its leaders trot out precis ely the same discredited line in favour of EU membership Britain mustn t put itself in the same position as Norway, argues John Cridland, the CBI Director General Actually, I d gladly swap our problems for those of Norway the country the UN reckons the best place in the world to be born Although Norway s relationship with the EU is not perfect, almost no one there wants to exchange it for full membership No fewer than 79 8 per cent of Norwegians oppose accession the Yes campaign has accepted defeat and closed shop Cridland does what so many supporters of EU membership do, quoting a Europhile Norwegian MP as if he, rather than the 79 8 per cent, were representative.15 21 Our economics editor Philip Aldrick says Mr Carney s intervention appeared to be a response to fears that the market was getting ahead of itself. Gilt yields have shot up since US Federal Reserve triggered a market panic in late May by suggesting it would consider winding down its stimulus programme. Here s what Mr Carney appears to be hinting at This graph shows the yield on the 10-year gilt, which has moved markedly higher in the last few months, especially since late May, when the US Federal Reserve stoked fears that American quantitative easing will be tapered.15 10 While bank rates will be on hold for some time, quite a few analysts expect to see a loosening of monetary policy next month. Trevor Greetham director of asset allocation at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, believes we are almost certain to see further easing from August onwards when the MPC will vote on the basis of as yet unspecified intermediate thresholds. I expect George Osborne to ask the Bank to ease monetary policy until the unemployment rate is 6 5pc or lower, as long as inflation expectations stay under control. Such a framework would be effective from both an economic and political point of view A Bank of England promise to keep base rates low for a considerable time would boost confidence and it would sit alongside a range of gov ernment policies aimed at making mortgages more affordable Meanwhile, the Chancellor can say he has tasked the Bank to create half a million new jobs. Annalisa Piazza of Newedge Strategy. Today s statement clearly leaves the door open to further accommodation For now, Carney seems to have pushed in the direction of more open communication tools. Philip Shaw at Investec thinks there will be another 50bn of gilt purchases next month. Our view is still that the committee will restart QE next month. While we concede that the dynamics of recent indicators have been noticeably more positive recently, they have, as the MPC s statement mentioned, been broadly consistent with the committee s views in May s Inflation Report We would summarise the justification of our view as follows.1 the BoE s inflation projections may well lie visibly below 2pc in August, in the absence of more stimulus.2 the UK economy has shown signs of life in the recent past before being subject to setbacks The risk of this hap pening again may be reduced by giving growth greater traction now.3 rising gilt yields and swap rates risk pushing fixed-term mortgage rates higher and denting a recovery in the housing market a view reinforced in today s MPC statement.4 whilst improved, the growth outlook looks subdued by historical standards again as the statement pointed out By trying to achieve a livelier pace of GDP growth, the MPC may be able to exit the near zero rate environment sooner than otherwise, an issue that we expect to become more important in due course.14 51 But not everyone agrees with today s Bank of England decision. Former MPC members Danny Blanchflower and Andrew Sentance have got into a Twitter spat with each other nothing new for these two following the Bank s announcement. ltnoframe gtTwitter Andrew Sentance - Inflation is set to rise, and BoE statement pours cold water on rate rises Pretty dismal signal from MPC to Britain s savers lt noframe gt. ltnoframe gtTwitter Danny Blanchflower - lta tar get blank gt asentance lt a gt great news for Britain s unemployed though especially 1 million young thing in the world they need is a rate rise lt noframe gt. ltnoframe gtTwitter Andrew Sentance - lta target blank gt DBlanchflower lt a gt Not good news for growth jobs, I fear depressing income of savers ampamp squeezing consumer spending via imported inflation lt noframe gt. ltnoframe gtTwitter Danny Blanchflower - lta target blank gt asentance lt a gt why make matters worse by raising rates we know 1 rise in unempt hurts 4 times more than 1 rise in inflation I care about unemp lt noframe gt. London s FTSE 100 surged back above the psychologically 6,400 mark this afternoon on signs central bankers in the UK and Europe are set to stick with low interest rates. The benchmark index of leading shares jumped as much as 197 18 points, or 3 2pc, this afternoon and was trading 2 8pc higher at 2 15pm That means the blue-chips have reversed all of the losses they suffered on Wednesday amid worries over political stability in Portugal and unrest in Egypt, to climb back to levels last seen in early June. Stock markets have been under pressure ever since late May, when Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke indicated the US central bank could start to taper its quantitative easing programme The FTSE 100, which had reached a thirteen-year high of 6,840 27, tumbled as a result. Suggestions today from the Bank of England that monetary policy was unlikely to be tightened in the near future sparked the surge higher just after mid-day, while dovish comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, who indicated that interest rates could be lowered even further, saw the FTSE 100 kick higher later in the afternoon. FTSE 100 was up 3 2pc before falling back slightly.14 27 That s it for questions and the presser is over, in under an hour which is somewhat unusual. European markets were indeed hanging off his every word and have shot up. The FTSE 100 rose as much as 3 2pc at one stage but has fallen back slightly and is now up 2 6pc. In Germany the Dax is up 2 1pc. In France the Cac is up 2 2pc. In Spain the Ibex is up 2 5pc. In Portugal the PSI 20 is up 3 8pc.14 23 Draghi is asked another question about Portugal and whether or not it should use the OMT programme. Draghi replies that we all know the OMT conditions. OMT is meant to address tail risks in the euro area So that is where I ll leave that. He said in an earlier response to a question about OMT that it was not introduced to supplement government s actions. It has been almost a year since the ECB launched the Outright Monetary Transactions OMT - an unlimited bond buying programme designed to provide a fully effective backstop to the stricken eurozone economies. OMTs rely on the first move being made by individual members seeking help.14 07 Portugal question took longer than I expected What is the problem - too much austerity or should they do more. Draghi replies slowly and thoughtfully, clearly being careful in his resp onse He says. I think Portugal has achieved very remarkable results It s been a painful route and the results achieved have been quite significant, remarkable, if not outstanding. We should give credit for this to the government and to finance minister Vitor Gaspar who has just resigned. Also, we are assured by the new minister Maria Luis Albuquerque and everything we know about her Her personality, her constant attendance at eurogroup meetings - so Portugal is in safe hands. I wouldn t comment on political situation in Portugal as not my job.14 03 Draghi says it is too early to speculate on further developments in the communication of forward guidance. We have taken a big step in forward guidance. This forward guidance follows monetary tightening over the last month in various segments of the rate curve. This would seem to mean that that ECB is giving forward guidance to calm markets.13 59 Draghi confirms that some members of the ECB were in favour of a rate cut, and some were not. He said th ere were extensive discussions on cutting the rates. That is why there was a unanimous agreement to set out forward guidance. He said there were arguments on both sides to cut and to maintain the rates. There has been some monetary tightening in main monetary variables and also had weak monetary developments On the other side, we have seen our baseline scenario of gradual recovery by end of year seems confirmed by soft indicators on the positive side. He also says it is possible that the ECB could cut all three rates - including its deposit rate which is already at zero This means the ECB is looking into negative interest rates.13 55 Draghi is asked to confirm how long an extended period of time is. He replies that the bank rates will be assessed based on three things - inflation, the state of the economy and monetary dynamics.13 47 Draghi asked if he will give forward guidance as Carney has done. Draghi makes the room laugh when he replies - you clearly weren t listening to my statement. The governing council took unprecedented steps to give forward guidance in a way not done in the past. The governing council expects all interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period time This is the first time governing council has said so. He adds that it was just a coincidence that this forward guidance was given on the same day as Carney gave his He also said the vote to maintain rates was unanimous.13 43 European markets are climbing as Draghi confirms rates will stay low for an extended time. Time for questions.13 39 Draghi says inflation risks are expected to be subject to some volatility.13 36 Draghi says the significant improvement in financial markets last summer should start to work into the real economy.13 34 Draghi says he sees recovery later in the year and into 2014.Rates will remain at their present level of 0 5pc, or even lower levels, for an extended period of time. He says the ECB s monetary stance will stay accommodative as long as needed.13 25 Mario Draghi s press conference will kick off in five minutes. Will it have the same effect on European markets as the Bank of England s statement did on the FTSE 100 - the UK s main index jumped following the announcement and is now up 2 2pc.13 10 Just to go back to the UK bank decision quickly. Mark Carney has shown who s boss at the Bank, according to Kathleen Brooks. Mark Carney s first meeting as Governor of the Bank of England turned out to be more eventful than many in the market had expected. Carney may have only been in the job less than a week but he has shaken up the BOE s communication efforts already By releasing a statement with today s decision it has clarified the forward guidance issue, and also highlighted that future asset purchases remain on the table at the BOE This heralds a new, open, clear-cut BOE, which is a break with the past under Mervyn King.13 00 No action from the ECB was widely expected. Unicredit economist Marco Valli. This was widely expected. The focus will now be on Draghi s words, there is very much a focus on the rhetoric.12 50 ECB president Mario Draghi will hold a press conference at 1 30pm UK time to go through the central bank s decision to hold.12 45 BREAKING The European Central Bank has voted to hold its main base rate at 0 5pc.12 31 The pound has fallen heavily against the dollar. Sky economics editor Ed Conway tweets. ltnoframe gtTwitter Ed Conway - Pound has lost almost two cents against dollar Big, big intraday fall Talk abt making yr mark, Mark lta target blank lt a gt lt noframe gt. GBP v dollar in Thursday s trading.12 25 Within the Bank statement which you can read in full here it also says that alongside its inflation report in August, part of its remit is to assess the case for adopting forward guidance. This analysis would have an important bearing on the Committee s policy discussions in August. Analysts have read today s statement to be guidance that there will be future guidance. Brian Hilliard, Societe Generale. It s no action but hint of action It the BoE says the significant upward movement in market rates weighs on the outlook, not warranted and then it says this analysis would have an important bearing on the policy discussion in August. This is a big hint that they will do forward guidance next month, a big, big hint, and the market is reacting accordingly. Jens Larsen, RBC Capital Markets. I m surprised that they put out a statement that basically warns us about the forward guidance to come in August They ve said the implied rise in the future path of bank rate is not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy So giving a clear steer to the market that they don t think that the rise in rate is consistent with their policy intentions. It s a preamble to the forward guidance that we re likely to see next month. Alan Clarke, ScotiaBank. I don t think it s screaming out that they re going to move policy at all I think the most likely thing is they introduce forward guidance and then use that to try and keep market interest rates low going forward.12 17 Markets appear to like the forward guidance and have jumped following the bank annoucement. The FTSE 100 is now up 1 84pc.12 08 No press conference there had been a rumour circulating this morning but Carney has made his mark by issuing some forward guidance along with the announcement. The current UK economic outlook means there will not be a bank rate rise in the near future. The statement said. In the Committee s view, the implied rise in the expected future path of Bank Rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy. The Monetary Policy Committee also said it expects inflation to rise in the near-term from its current level of 2 7pc. ltnoframe gtTwitter jeremy warner - Less than a week into job, lta target blank gt Carney lt a gt makes his presence felt with a stab at forward guidance Rising interest rate expectations not warrented lt noframe gt.12 00 BREAKING Bank of England has voted to hold bank rate at 0 5pc and keep its monetary stimulus programme at 375bn.11 54 Before that a quick look at markets - homebuilder shares are among the notable risers in the London stock market, with Redrow up 5 4pc, and Taylor Wimpey 5 1 higher, both boosted by encouraging trading updates. The noises from those two builders, as well as data from Halifax showing that UK house prices hit the highest level in nearly three years in June, has boosted others in the sector Bellway has gained 2 5pc and Barratt Developments has put on 2 4pc.11 50 T minus 10 minutes until well, no change I suspect but we all wait with bated breath for first MPC monetary policy decision under new leader Mark Carney.11 38 There have been a couple of successful bond sales in Europe today. Spain appears unaffected by its neighbour s political turmoil after it easily met its target amount The Treasury raised 4 billion by selling three and five-year bonds, although prices were slightly up. The yield on the three-year paper ro se to 2 875pc from 2 706pc when it was last sold a month ago. Five-year was priced to yield 3 792pc, about 20 basis points more than at Spain s last sale of five-year debt in June. Nick Stamenkovic bond strategist at RIA Capital Markets said. The recent Portuguese-driven correction has enhanced the attractiveness of Spanish bonds and the auction was taken down very well. The outlook in Portugal is very clouded What s interesting is that Italy and Spain have been relatively resilient The contagion is very limited and a sign that investors see those problems as very localised and don t see them being a threat to the euro zone. France also had a successful bond sale, raising nearly 8 billion at auction but saw yields rise.11 21 As we wait patiently for the UK and ECB policy decisions, Draghi and Carney will be hoping they don t make he same slip up that Australia s central bank governor did. Glenn Stevens sent the Aussie dollar plunging to a three-year low after he joked in a speech that the ba nk s board deliberated for a very long time before leaving the cash rate steady at its monthly meeting on Tuesday a comment that caused the dollar to drop to US90 37 cents. The remark also prompted some bank economists to change their forecasts and predict an interest rate cut in August. However, the Reserve Bank sought to repair the damage today and insisted the comment was light-hearted a reversal which helped lift the dollar and prompted banks to withdraw their revised forecasts. The bank s deputy governor, Philip Lowe said financial markets and the media had misinterpreted the comments, which were not supposed to be taken seriously. They were meant to be a light-hearted remark after what, he Mr Stevens reports to me, was a very light-hearted introduction, Mr Lowe told a conference in Sydney today. Glenn Stevens, the Governor of Australia s Reserve Bank. Szu Ping Chan reports. John Cridland, director general of the business lobby group, said it was in Britain s interest to remain in the EU in order to stand a chance of reforming Europe. We don t have to fear being outside moves towards greater integration in the eurozone with the right institutional safeguards we don t need to be included in the eurozone group to influence decision-making in the wider single market, said Mr Cridland But it is clear that we do need to be inside the wider Union to stand a chance of reforming Europe. Ahead of a debate on a Conservative-backed EU referendum Bill on Friday, Mr Cridland called on eurosceptic MPs to consider Britain s relationship with the EU using hard facts and objective analysis, not emotion or hollow rhetoric. Writing in the Times, Mr Cridland argued that although countries such as Norway and Switzerland enjoyed many EU benefits without membership, there were also clear disadvantages. Some hold up Norway or Switzerland as a panacea for the UK s European headache But a half-way house isn t the answer, he said. Neither the Norwegians nor the Swiss have developed relationships that are fully satisfactory to either Brussels or themselves and these models certainly would not work for us.10 40 Since it is Independence Day in the US Happy 4th of July , markets are all staring at Draghi to save the day. Trading volumes are light at the moment but, could give way to volatility later as traders hang on the ECB president s every word. Matt Basi head of UK sales trading at CMC Markets UK, said. A soothingly dovish statement is to be expected given the turmoils of Portugal and their rocketing yields over the past week, as the Italian seeks to reassure markets that the single currency isn t about to descend once more into chaos. He expects a quiet afternoon following the central bank s announcement. Draghi to the rescue Graffiti depicting Draghi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel outside a fence surrounding the construction site for the new ECB headquarters in Frankfurt Photo Reuters.10 28 Shares in Centamin the Egyptian gold producer, have surged 14 6pc in the FTSE 250 on news of last night s coup, with investors hopeful the change of government bodes well for the ongoing court case that has questioned Centamin s right to mine in the country Still, analysts at Citigroup remain cautious this morning, reiterating their neutral rating and not setting a target price due to the political instability. Back in the FTSE 100 Reckitt Benckiser has fallen 1 1pc on competition worries Sweden s Orexo has secured approval from US regulators for Zubsolv, an addiction treatment that rivals Reckitt s Suboxone.10 20 The Financial Conduct Authority has banned short-selling on three Portuguese banks - Banco Comercial Portugues, Banco Espirito Santo and Sonae Industria. Short-sellers seek to profit on declining markets by selling borrowed shares or bonds, on the belief their price will fall, then replacing them with securities bought at a lower price. The move by the City regulator this morning comes after Lisb on s financial regulator banned short-selling on four companies, including the three banks, after they each fell more than 10pc in yesterday s trading. The FCA ban started at 8am and finishes tonight at 11 59pm.09 54 With car sales motoring along, the analysts don t think the brakes will be applied to the recovery any time soon. Richard Lowe head of retail wholesale at fx, said. What an incredible first half of the year Consumer appetite continues to motor, with new car sales rising for the 16th consecutive month The combination of good finance deals and more fuel efficient vehicles have encouraged sales, and there is no sign of this demand easing. Howard Archer analyst at IHS Global Insight, said. It is evident that private new car sales are being supported by attractive offers and packages, as well as by motorists desire to buy more fuel efficient cars at a time of relatively high petrol prices It is also likely that elevated employment and recently significantly higher consumer con fidence means that people are more prepared to replace aging cars.09 47 According to SMMT the best selling car was the Ford Fiesta, followed by the Ford Focus. Here is the full list for the month of the year and also year-to-date.09 44 It would appear to be a Good News Britain day. New car sales in Britain rose for the 16th consecutive month in June, jumping 13 4pc with a year earlier. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders SMMT said new car registrations increased to 214,957.Many buyers are returning to the market having held off on purchasing new cars, while attractive finance deals and more fuel-efficient models are also driving growth, SMMT said. Mike Baunton, SMMT interim chief executive, said. While there are still potential challenges ahead, recent robust growth suggests that the market is on course to perform well ahead of 2012 levels. Over the first half of the year, new car sales rose 10pc. UK new car sales.09 22 Low-cost airline easyJet is among the biggest risers in the FT SE 100 this morning, up 1 7pc in the wake of well-received June passenger numbers showing an increase of 1 9pc Oil services company Wood Group is another, boosted 1 6pc on news of it has own a three-year contract extension in the North Sea with Nexen Petroleum.09 16 Back in the UK, the latest Halifax House Price Index is out and shows that British house prices rose 0 6 pc in June from May and posted their sharpest annual increase in nearly three years in the second quarter June was the fifth consecutive month of house price rises. The number of mortgage approvals hit a three and-a-half-year high in May, after rising 7pc from the previous month to hit 58,200.Martin Ellis Halifax housing economist. Improved confidence in both the housing market and the economy, combined with a shortage of properties available for sale, appear to be pushing up house prices. He noted early indications that the government s Help to Buy equity loan scheme might be stimulating demand, but warned. Despite these si gns of improvement in the market, the still subdued economic background and weak income growth are expected to remain significant constraints on housing demand and activity during the second half of 2013.08 58 ECB president Mario Draghi will have to go further than just reassuring investors, but what ever he does today he won t dare rock the boat according to Eimear Daly, head of market analysis at Monex Europe She said. In today s press conference, Draghi will first reassure markets that a departure from easy monetary policy in the Eurozone is completely premature However, mounting political risks in the Eurozone are now adding to already elevated yield levels, so Draghi will need to do more than just reassure markets that policy won t change. It is likely Draghi will pull out the negative deposit rates trick again, warning markets that the central bank is not afraid to use them He will also reiterate that the ECB is actively considering using various conventional and non-conventional l iquidity tools, including help for SMEs. Draghi needs to convince bond markets that the ECB is biased towards easing, or risk having to use the OMT if yields continue to rise The OMT is a powerful device as long as it isn t used and no one discovers that the ECB doesn t actually have the money to bail out the whole EMU. Unfortunately the outcome of the ECB meeting will be all talk - Draghi won t dare rock the boat with a refinancing or deposit rate cut ahead of Germany s general election in September Germany is the Eurozone s biggest creditor and you always stand by your creditors in tough times.08 40 Here s Deutsche Bank on what is likely to be the main event of the day for traders in Europe, the ECB meeting. The near-unanimous consensus amongst economists including DB s is for no change in rates at today s ECB meeting For the record, only one economist is calling for a 25bp cut in the refi rate and no forecasters are calling for a cut in the deposit rate to negative territory DB s Wall and Moec do note that renewed financial market tensions even before the events in Portugal this week highlight risks of a policy easing, rates or otherwise As ever, Draghi s post-meeting comments will be a focus Wall and Moec expect Draghi to underline the ECB s easing bias and commitment to maintaining an accommodative stance as long as is needed Differentiating the policy stance from the Fed will be an objective. Outside of the ECB Draghi, with US markets shut today the spotlight will remain on continuing developments in Egypt and Portugal The BoE will also be meeting today in what will be Carney s first MPC. It s worth noting that with US markets closed today trading volumes in London are expected to be thin.08 31 A little bit of history is being made today aside from Carney s first rate decision in the UK. The first shovels are ready to get going at Battersea Power Station. David Cameron will join the Malaysian PM Najib Razak for the ground breaking ceremony at the iconic London site. L ast year a Malaysian consortium beat other contenders including Chelsea FC s Roman Abramovich with its plan for an 8bn multi-use regeneration project The consortium paid 400m for the site and, unlike former owners, have promised to actually deliver the project this time. More than 95pc of the 866 luxury flats were sold within days in one of the fastest pre-sales ever seen in London while the development is expected to create up to 25,000 jobs. Battersea Power Station.08 20 Some more corporate news. Construction group Balfour Beatty, the troubled infrastructure group, has won a 200m contract from Herefordshire County Council to maintain roads, street lighting and cleaning, and parks for 10 years. Elsewhere, Simon Murray the former chairman of Glencore has been appointed as the new chairman of Gulf Keystone Petrol. Finally, the low-cost carrier easyJet has reported a 1 9pc rise in passenger numbers in June but added that it had to cancel 585 flights compared to just 22 flights in the same mon th last year because of French air traffic control strikes.08 15 Corporate news is a bit thin on the ground this morning and it is all about construction. First up housebuilder Taylor Wimpey has unveiled an impressive first half trading update with an order book of 1 3bn, up 35pc from last year. The company says it expects a first half operating profit margin of more than 13pc. Cancellations are low and houseprices are up - the average sale on private completions is up 8pc to 205,000.The group, which will publish full first half results on July 31, says the growth has been driven by increased customer confidence and by the Government measures , including Help to Buy. Jefferies analyst Anthony Codling said. If ever we need proof that the housing market is recovering, we have it now.08 05 After sliding 1 2pc on Wednesday amid the turmoil in Portugal and Greece, the FTSE 100 has staged a partial recovery today by advancing 44 points, or 0 7pc, to 6,274 at the open.07 50 With weather forecaster s predicting that temperatures in the south of England could top 30 degrees for the next two weeks, no-one wants to think about the cold and snow and festive season It is surely too early to start thinking about Christmas O no its not says Waitrose maybe not quite in such panto style. The supermarket chain has announced plans to sell Christmas trees for the first time this year in a festive range, including Heston Blumenthal party food, personalised hampers and luxurious anti-ageing cream. Waitrose said Nordman Firs from the Black Isles north of Inverness would be available for shoppers as it unveiled its line-up for Christmas 2013.He said the decision to stock Christmas trees, at 1 25 metres or 90cm tall, was party with Waitrose s evolution into gardening, the second most popular hobby of its customers, behind food. Only 173 days until Christmas.07 30 There will also be a rate decision from the European Central Bank today 12 45pm UK time. Given the political turmoil in Portugal and the ri sing cost of borrowing for the peripheral eurozone countries, there is growing pressure on the central bank to follow in the US Fed s footsteps and set out a clear timetable for its monetary policy to reassure investors and calm fears. Unlike the MPC, the ECB will give a press conference shortly after announcing its policy decisions and all eyes and ears will be paying close attention to the language used by ECB president Mario Draghi. Berenberg bank economist Christian Schulz says markets need reassurance. The ECB needs to reassure markets that it is not going to try to get ahead of the Fed and tighten even earlier, so it s all about guidance as far as that is possible at the ECB. ING economist Carsten Brzeski added. The challenging balancing act is that he has to talk up the economy, he has to send a clear message to markets that the OMT bond-buying plan could still be used, giving financial markets confidence. At the same time, he has to keep up pressure on governments to continue their r eforms He cannot promise too much, he cannot be too confident because otherwise he would again lower the pressure on governments. An acceleration in eurozone inflation in June and stronger-than-expected consumer spending in France and Germany reinforce the ECB s projection for a slow eurozone recovery late this year, leaving it little grounds to justify a rate cut now. It is expected that there will be no change to the bank rates or its monetary policy. Last week, Draghi said ECB policy would remain accommodative and that the bank stood ready to act again if needed But he added that it has done as much as it can to stabilise markets and support the economy , pressing governments to reform. ECB president Mario Draghi.07 20 Looking ahead to today there are a few things to keep an eye out for. Firstly, Mark Carney is leading his first policy meeting in UK It started yesterday but later today, at midday to be exact, we will find out if there have been any changes to the bank rate or QE. It is un likely to be a momentous meeting and it is widely expected that both the bank rate 0 5pc and monetary policy 375bn will be kept on hold. No changes are expected until August s meeting at the earliest. That is when Carney could begin to push the central bank to try new ways to achieve escape velocity in Britain s recovery, which has just started to show some long-awaited momentum after years of economic stagnation. Manufacturing and services sector surveys this week capped a run of stronger-than-expected data which has prompted many economists to predict growth in the second quarter could hit 0 5pc. George Buckley at Deutsche Bank said the surveys were close to the level at which, in the past, the central bank has eventually tightened monetary policy. Neville Hill an economist at Credit Suisse, said. It s nothing short of ridiculous how the UK numbers have turned around ahead of Mr Carney s arrival, suggesting he s got very lucky timing. The case for the bank doing something on Thursday is rea lly pretty limited. But whatever the outcome today, we will not actually know how Carney has voted until the minutes are published on July 17.Mark Carney, new Governor of the Bank Of England, on his first day at work in London.07 15 Now for a look at The Telegraph s business section. It leads with the story that is sure to make Mark Carney happy in his first week as governor of the Bank of England Britain s powerhouse services sector grew at the fastest pace in two years last month completing an economic hat trick after upbeat manufacturing and construction data this week and putting the country well on the road to recovery. James Quinn reports that Ian Hannam, the former JP Morgan Cazenove JPMC banker attempting to clear his name has admitted that one of the emails which sits at the heart of the Financial Services Authority s market abuse case against him may well have been factually incorrect, and may have been written purely to woo a possible suitor for his client. There is also some M A around Graham Ruddick reports that a collection of private equity giants are battling it out to acquire British greeting card retailer Card Factory It is understood that Cinven, Advent International, KKR and Clayton Dubilier Rice, which last year bought discount retailer B M Retail, are among the parties interested in Card Factory.07 10 Here is a quick look at the business pages. The Financial Times carries a front page story reporting that the government of the gas-rich state of Qatar is rethinking the way it invests billions of dollars of state funds in property in an attempt to introduce a commercial rigour to its dealmaking and to end its reputation as a trophy investor. The FT s Companies and Markets section leads with the story that the brother of Bernard Madoff, the fraudster responsible for the largest Ponzi scheme in history invoked his Fifth Amendment rights more than 50 times on Wednesday, as he refused to answer questions in the High Court about Madoff s London operations. T he Times reports that the bankrupt furniture chain Dwell has been rescued by its founder although customers left out of pocket by its collapse are yet to discover their fate. The Guardian is reporting that an Irish parliamentary committee has voted down calls for multinational companies to be grilled in Dublin about their tax affairs, in the wake of a string of controversies at firms such as Google and Apple which use the Irish tax regime. The Daily Mail reports the chief executives of scandal-scarred miners ENRC and Bumi face a grilling from MPs amid fears that corporate governance failures are damaging London s standing as a financial centre.07 00 Good morning and welcome to our daily business and markets live blog, your one stop shop for all the breaking business stories of the day.10 21 2016 - The Roundtable Insight Yra Harris on Deutsche Bank, Systemic Risk and the U S Elections. FRA is joined by Yra Harris in discussing the impact of the potentially failing Deutsche Bank on the glob al economy, along with the state of US markets as election day draws closer. Yra Harris is a recognized Trader with over 32 years of experience in all areas of commodity trading, with broad expertise in cash currency markets He has a proven track record of successful trading through combination of technical work and fundamental analysis of global trends historically based analysis on global hot money flows He is recognized by peers as an authority on foreign currency In addition to this he has Specific measurable achievements as a member of the Board of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME Yra Harris is a Registered Commodity Trading Advisor, Registered Floor Broker and a Registered Pool Operator. He is a regular guest analysis on Currency Global Interest Markets on Bloomberg and CNBC He has been interviewed for various articles in Der Spiegel, Japanese television and print media, and is a frequent commentator on Canadian Financial Network, ROB TV. We don t know if Deutsche Bank is a buy-i n opportunity It s based on the fact that the EU and Germany will not allow Deutsche to fail This extensive systemic risk because of the fact that Deutsche Bank is one of the world s largest notional derivative books of about 46T at the end of last year represents a lot of risk in terms of derivatives meltdown between counterparties While the ECB balance sheet has grown from 2T to 3 4T in just 18 months, there s only about 7 5T outstanding Eurozone sovereign debt It represents a challenge going forward in a very quick period of time, in terms of the overall systemic risk to the European banking system. Its risk profile is based on Deutsche s own models, so we don t really know what the exposure is It ought to be a higher risk rating than they reveal. CAN T LET DEUTSCHE FAIL WHAT THEN. It would be extremely difficult to bail Deutsche out or bail it in If you want to see financial repression, watch what the ECB is doing to the savers in Germany They re bearing the bailout of the entire Euro pean project If there was a bail-in, that would cause even more political angst If that balance sheet grows big enough, no one can escape the EU ever, and the German taxpayers will be on the hook for this forever. The German government is boxed in It could go in the direction of a bailout of 100M to potentially a bail-in, as part of financial repression where there s a wealth confiscation of assets that take place at the capital structure layers, anywhere from bank depositors to senior secure bond holders It could happen either way or a combination of both Or you could have both, or have the European Central Bank step in and monetize a lot of the bailout in terms of assistance for quantitative easing programs. Mario Draghi would like to increase QE, but there s no chance of that happening He s under a lot of pressure, and wants to build that balance sheet up bigger and bigger Central bankers are running out of tricks and ammo. The US equity market has now broken out of the uptrend The equ ity market is fairly valued, but vulnerable to a sell-off Wall Street would prefer Hillary, but she will certainly raise capital gains or the holding period in which you can obtain capital gains People who have been in this market and have long term capital gains will likely sell that which they can before the end of the year, which makes this market vulnerable Corporations have piled up so much debt that it weighs on this market dramatically The amount of debt piled on the balance sheets around the world is just enormous. The markets are vulnerable from the perspective of overvaluation measures and overhanging debt, but also from the potential of helicopter money for doing projects like infrastructure to provide a stimulus to the financial markets as well as the economy The asset markets will have to go down significantly to some level to prompt fiscal authorities to bring the political will together to create fiscal stimulus With increasing central bank buying of stocks, that will lik ely artificially support stock markets. US PRESIDENTIAL RACE. Trump makes the markets nervous, because they don t like unknowns translating into high volatility in the markets Trump might be anti-trade, which could affect international companies, but Clinton might bring geopolitical events that could negatively affect the markets as well. Several people have laid out the possibility that if Trump pulls out a surprise upset victory on election night, there would likely be calls to say this was Russian tampering and that election results should be put on hold until it could be determined if foreign interests undermined the election This will likely provide a great deal of social unrest, which could translate into a lot of economic uncertainty There s a lot happening outside of North America that could work to propel the US markets higher with a strengthening dollar. US DOLLAR STRENGTHENING. Last week we saw, for the first time since February, the US dollar move above 97 50 on the dollar index It s starting to look like the makings of an upside break-out in the dollar index When you look at the problems around the world, it s hard to believe the Euro is still above par The Yen is still 20 higher on the year The dollar ought to be higher, but it s not The central bankers are working to manage the stability of currencies relative to each other, but overall we re looking at the decline of purchasing power of money regardless of currency. This is about global assets they re all somewhat in trouble here. PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION AND ASSET ALLOCATION. Treat everything as short term trades If you can turn it into a profit, go ahead, and go on to the next one It s very difficult to say in a medium or long term sense because of the strong tug of war between inflation and deflation type forces We have strong deflationary forces that are naturally happening in the financial system being counterbalanced by the very inflationary forces provided by central banks It could go either way in a me dium term It would be difficult to quickly change your portfolio, but perhaps a diversified portfolio in the medium-long term with this short term trading strategy. Another way is looking at companies with little or no debt, high discounted free cash flow with little or no leverage. Abstract by Annie Zhou. Hedge Fund manager Erik Townsend of Macro Voices is joined by Uli Kortsch in discussing his project Infrastructure Without Debt and the ways it will impact the current banking system. Uli Kortsch is the Founder of both the Monetary Trust Initiative MTI and Global Partners Investments GPI Currently most of his time is spent on MTI whose mission is to bring transparency and authentic principles to our monetary system He was asked to organize a conference on this topic at the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia, the proceeds of which are now published as a book He is a regular speaker at various conferences in different countries. As President of Global Partners Investments and other ventur es Mr Kortsch has worked in over 50 countries, written a bill for Congress, and conferred with approximately 15 national presidents, ministers of finance, and ministers of commerce He has served on numerous corporate boards with both for-profit and not-for-profit organizations. INFRASTRUCTURE WITHOUT DEBT. The average infrastructure cost is twice the principle amount The moment you talk infrastructure without debt, you re saving 50 of all our infrastructure debt. Right now most people think all of our money is created by private banks, when it s actually created through deposit creation If you sign a contract with the bank, that s an asset to the bank that deposits into your account The money was created out of nothing We call that deposit creation, and that s where our money comes from If you were charged an interest rate, that interest payment is income for the bank, but the principle is destroyed It did not exist at the beginning of the loan, and it does not exist when the loan is paid off. That means in order to have price stability, as our overall production increases then the amount of money in circulation must also increase And the only way that can increase is through more debt So we re constantly increasing the debt load The US debt load ends up as part of the global debt load of all those who use US dollars This is a very slow, long term process Slowly we get to the level where this is not possible It isn t just that the government runs deficits, it s the structure of our whole economy. One of the way of solving this is to change who gets the seigniorage on the creation of that money Today the indirect seigniorage goes to the bank, and they use it to charge you interest People think that banks intermediate funds by moving funds from savers to investors and that the money moves in a circle Long term, this will result in a crash Short term, there are ways of solving that President Lincoln used US notes to pay for the civil war and build infrastructure It s Treasu ry money deposited in the Federal Reserve bank with no interest rate, and the seigniorage goes to us as taxpayers And that is infrastructure without debt. Essentially it s the creation of new Federal notes as opposed to Federal Reserve notes, which could be used to purchase infrastructure. We are living in a temporary period of time where this could be done easily, because other than asset inflation we do not see much consumer inflation We live in a time where this would work really well The Federal government should create Federal Treasury money without the debt created when the Federal Reserve is used as an intermediary. WHY INFRASTRUCTURE WITHOUT DEBT. Private banks should not have the ability to create money That should be taken away from them and given back to the government, so the amount of money created is equivalent to the increase in production The current disinflationary state we re in allows for temporary steps, and this has been done before multiple times over the course of hi story Guernsey, for 200 years, has also used this method and the results have been spectacular. No inflation has been triggered by this, though there was a strong inflationary during the 1870s and 1880s, but that had to do more with the terms of trade with the gold-based rest of the world Because they do not create debt, there is no such thing as equity accounting in government accounts. What if this keeps going This is a nuclear option and can be abused The assumption is that the banks won t be allowed to create money anymore, which takes the inflationary part out of this because the price stability portion is locked in Part of the control is that it should never be 100 So the US Federal government makes very few decisions about infrastructures almost all of it is made by municipalities The funding should never be 100.The danger is there, we re headed for a major crash, and at that point it would be better for the system to radically change If we could run infrastructure without debt fo r a few years, people might want to change the entire banking system. HOW DO WE CONTROL THIS. According to the system we re using today, the government only owes what s on its credit card Government saving bonds are the credit cards of the government, and it only owes the issuance of its Treasuries What does it actually owe in contract that it s signed Here in the US, we owe 205T. Our money supply is constantly increasing through debt We stabilize that through interest rates and the desires of banks to lend and borrowers to borrow We are not going to increase the money supply we re currently doing that through debt anyway We re just shifting the methodology of how that money is created only the seigniorage will go to the taxpayers The amount of money created is identical. The amount of money that is created, just as it is now, is strictly dependant on our ability to produce Instead of gold-backed, this is production-backed money The system is self-regulating, other than the control of the money, which you hand to a deliberately separate group of people under very strict rules The downfall is that the banks will still make money. A POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR THE FUTURE. Under the infrastructure without debt system, banks are divided into two windows dependant on function There s the depository window, which keeps your money as yours since there s no merging of the funds On the income and investment side, things are mutualized and equity based During the crash of 2007 2008, mutual funds didn t go bankrupt because they re equity-based. Government insurance can only protect against one bank failing, not a systemic run on the fractional reserve banking system, only a run on an individual bank It s nowhere near big enough to protect against a systemic run In the US, by law, the FDIC has to hold 1 15 of the aggregated deposits. This whole international system is running on models, and their models are the most important thing, and this should change to human well-being We need to run ou r decisions based on true results, rather than what we think the model is. Abstract by Annie Zhou.09 30 2016 - The Roundtable Insight Macleod, Stoeferle, Boockvar, Townsend On Central Bank Effects. Hedge Fund manager Erik Townsend of Macro Voices is joined by Alasdair Macleod, Ronald Stoeferle, and Peter Boockvar in discussing the effects of central bank policy on global markets, along with debating the option of investing in gold versus mining stocks. Alasdair Macleod writes for Goldmoney He has been a celebrated stockbroker and Member of the London Stock Exchange for over four decades His experience encompasses equity and bond markets, fund management, corporate finance and investment strategy. Ronald is a managing partner and investment manager of Incrementum AG Together with Mark Valek, he manages a global macro fund which is based on the principles of the Austrian School of Economics Previously he worked seven years for Vienna-based Erste Group Bank where he began writing extensive re ports on gold and oil His benchmark reports called In GOLD we TRUST drew international coverage on CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times Next to his work at Incrementum he is a lecturing member of the Institute of Value based Economics and lecturer at the Academy of the Vienna Stock Exchange. Prior to joining The Lindsey Group Peter spent a brief time at Omega Advisors, a New York based hedge fund, as a macro analyst and portfolio manager Before this, he was an employee and partner at Miller Tabak Co for 18 years where he was recently the equity strategist and a portfolio manager with Miller Tabak Advisors He joined Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette in 1992 in their corporate bond research department as a junior analyst He is also president of OCLI, LLC and OCLI2, LLC, farmland real estate investment funds He is a CNBC contributor and appears regularly on their network Peter graduated Magna Cum Laude with a B B A in Finance from George Washington University. EFFEC T OF US PRESIDENCY ON GLOBAL MARKETS. Trump has managed to appeal to the disaffected masses, so we have very little clue how he ll perform if elected president The possibility he ll win is higher than the polls and media discount, as the public seems to be disgusted with the political establishment and want change But regardless of who the next president is, in the early part of their term they re going to preside over a recession Both will face the same challenges Central banks have manhandled markets over the past eight years, and will still be the deciding factor. Trump has set up a situation where if it looks like he s going to be elected, markets will tank And Hilary will keep things at the status quo, where the government and policies are still for sale to Wall Street through bribe money in the form of political campaign contributions. FED POLICY AND A BEAR MARKET IN BONDS. Increasingly the central banks are trying to stop a bear market in bonds from materializing If you look at cent ral banks in Europe, some of them are overloaded with sovereign debt If you get a substantial bear market in sovereign debt, those banks basically go under 2017 is going to see an acceleration in price inflation, to the point where the Fed and other central banks are going to have to raise interest rates, but they can t do that without breaking the system. Price inflation will be a concern going forward Gold is a good signal regarding future price inflation, and the price is rising in every currency now Most people forget that in 2011 in the US had CPI rates at 4 5 , and last year oil prices started to collapse Therefore the base effect will be kicking in in the next four months. Four months ago the 40-year JGB yield touched 7 basis points Within two months that was 67 basis points The Bank of Japan acknowledged that they were doing major damage to their banking system and therefore needed a steeper yield curve For the first time a central bank is acknowledging the limits of their policy , and a bond market is fighting against that This is all combining for a possible mix that ll be negative for global bond markets, and any asset that is priced off low interest rates, particularly equities. US Dollar LIBOR has been ticking up, well above the Fed rates If you look at the LIBOR rate and tie it in with the increase in bank lending, that tells us that interest rates should rise, and very soon The market as a whole will begin to understand that the rate that matters is the free market rate measured by LIBOR. This is getting beyond the Fed s control The potential for a bond market crash is very large A banking crisis similar to 2008 would definitely be deflationary If the US implements negative rates, then this crazy bull market in bonds could accelerate We re seeing a lot of recession signal right now, and if we fall into recession it s possible that we can see even lower yields. The game of negative interest rates is over It s proven to be awful policy that central banks will be embarrassed to quickly backtrack on, and for that reason the US is unlikely to go to negative interest rates. BULLION VS MINING SHARES. If you regard gold as insurance or money, owning mines is a speculation Anyone investing in gold mines has to understand that there are risks you don t have in bullion itself Overall the bear market was pretty positive for the sector It s a highly volatile sector, so it might not be suitable for every investor you have to live with the volatility and enormous political risk. The gold bull market in the beginning part of the bull market should outperform the underlying, but as the gold bull market matures and prices get higher, it s probably best to switch from mining to bullion But for now, miners should outperform the underlying. Abstract by Annie Zhou. LINK HERE to listen to or to download the MP3.09 01 2016 - Charles Hugh Smith The Fly-in-the-Ointment - Stagnant Wages Hidden Inflation. FRA Co-founder Gordon T Long discusses with Charles Hugh Smith abo ut stagnating wages and high real inflation rates, using the IRS tax reports as a guide to real economic activity, and the likelihood of future tax increases. Charles Hugh Smith is the author of nine books on our economy and society, including A Radically Beneficial World Automation, Technology and Creating Jobs for All Resistance, Revolution, Liberation A Model for Positive Change and The Nearly Free University the Emerging Economy His blog, has logged over 55 million page views and is 7 on CNBC s top alternative finance sites. WHY WAGES HAVE STAGNATED. The statistics we rely on are becoming more and more suspicious. Statistics are now used for perception management rather than reflecting the real economy Of all these statistics we re relying on to reflect reality, some of them are really suspect We re trying to stick with the ones that are valid GDP is flawed but still our bellwethers, and we re still relying on FRED database. When you look at stagnant wages, two things pop out GDP has co ntinued to go up and the economy s expanding, so wages and employment should be expanding as well Productivity has also been rising until recently We would expect that wages and employment would be rising at the same rate as productivity and GDP, but what we find out is that wages for the bottom 95 have stagnated. The GDP increases and the increases in productivity are not flowing through to the bottom 80 They ve actually lost purchasing power in their wages The top 5 have done really well, and the middle sector has stayed even There are huge disconnects. PURCHASING POWER IN DECLINE. For the last 15 years, we see wages stagnating for declining for all but the top 5.Our standard of living is falling We re working harder, longer hours for less in real disposable income. Spending in the bottom 95 has been flat for the last decade The top 5 are skimming a good percentage of the productivity gains. I think that s the best and only valid way you can reach an estimate of inflation take a basket of goods and test them in the same metropolitan area over the years. As consumers see lots of evidence that inflation is running higher than 1 , we start wondering why the official statistic is suppressed to 1 The answer is that the system would break down if that 7 was reveals as reality. The bottom 60th percentile can t afford to buy, even with cheap interest rates and rents are going through the roof relative to their salaries. Both the charts from Dollar Tree and Dollar General are talking about how tough business is, and that it is a serious issue for the bottom 80 Their biggest sellers are bread, eggs, and milk The basics staples are where people are now going to buy them, because they can get them cheaper They re talking about the items being hit by by price hikes rent, food, healthcare, taxes Rather than raise the price by 15 , they ve cut the amount by 15 Regardless, it s still a 15 loss in purchasing power. FALLING TAX REVENUES. Tax receipts are falling across the board We ve lost s o many small businesses, and the jobs that go with them The chains have consolidated dramatically, but put all the mom and pop stores out of business. We ve lost some 770,000 net losses of small business since 2000 That is crippling to the economy, and that s where the bottom 60 have worked. The United States is not alone in suffering from statistics that are being gamed China had the same problem people started looking at the statistics for electricity consumption because that was a more accurate gauge of economic activity than the obviously phony GDP statistics the government was issuing. There s always a way to get a better statistic, but it has to be outside whatever the official government agencies can manipulate In the United States, the one thing you can t manipulate is the IRS tax statistics. Everyone that reports to the IRS reports the facts because it s not worth their time to try any gimmicks These are as accurate statistics as we can get These numbers can t be gamed like GDP an d the numbers we know are rigged. TAX INCREASES COMING IN THE FUTURE. Major tax increases are coming There s no question Hilary s already mentioning it, Trump s already mentioning it, they know it has to come at the state level, at the federal level, and it s going to be at the local level and it s going to be property taxes It s happening in the US already. The government is not collecting more taxes, but the cost of running the government is going up at a significant rate Every time in the past that tax receipts fell to the zero line, the United States was in recession So what we re talking about here is a recessionary economy where people are suffering a stagnant or declining household income, and their taxes are going up if they owe any taxes at all. Even low income people have to pay sales tax if you jack up sales tax, everybody pays that Even the people who were barely getting by. JUNK FEES AND CIVIL FORFEITURES. There s so many fees, licenses and tolls that you have to pay that s wher e the tax is coming from, not just on income Even police fines have gone through the roof These are extremely aggressive forms of taxation These are regressive taxes that hit the lower income households a lot harder than the upper income households. If you look at these charts, a lot of people are suddenly going to be classified as rich There s going to be surcharge on the upper middle class, and you can argue that it s justified, but we re likely going to see a double whammy higher regressive taxes that everyone has to pay in the form of junk feels, and higher income and sales taxes as well So it ll be a tax increase across every form of taxation There is no alternative The government is going to get the revenue however they can. They re actually seizing assets and you have to prove that they were wrong to get your assets back, which can take a long time The police departments are a revenue source now in many areas They re gambling that people will miss something, and they ve got the as sets And you may not get it back. What we re talking about here is a vice that s slowly squeezing the households We re seeing stagnating income, hours cut, hidden inflation that s eating away at our purchasing power at a far greater rate than 1 , and we re anticipating a lot higher taxes across the entire spectrum of fees and taxes because we can see that government tax revenues aren t rising anymore. As there s more and more pressure on the government to sustain itself, it has to resort to more and more aggressive stances like this There s a lot of very good people in all levels of the government that feel like they have no choice, especially where there s a lot of underfunded pensions that they have where they have pension obligations and no money to meet them. If taxes are declining, that means households and businesses are making less. FRA Co-founder Gordon T Long discusses with John Rubino. John Rubino is author of Clean Money Picking Winners in the Green Tech Boom Wiley, December 2008 , co-author, with GoldMoney s James Turk, of The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It Doubleday, January 2008 , and author of How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Bust Rodale, 2003 After earning a Finance MBA from New York University, he spent the 1980 s on Wall Street, as a currency trader, equity analyst and junk bond analyst During the 1990s he was a featured columnist with and a frequent contributor to Individual Investor Online Investor and Consumers Digest among many other publications He now writes for CFA Magazine and edits and. Governments are acting like they don t think they can handle a garden variety equities bear market anymore. You re seeing central banks all of a sudden become among the biggest buyers of equities in the world It s one thing to buy bonds and intervene in the interest rate markets, but another to buy equity This is governments buying the industrial capacity of the world and from an Austrian Economics point of view, this is catastrophically dangerous. If the central banks of the world own all the major equities, then they get to direct investment by those corporations, and that s a recipe for something that isn t capitalism anymore. Market based economies are the only method of organizing a society that s been proven to work, to generate progress, and pull people out of poverty, and we re actively doing away with that. HEDGE FUND PROBLEMS. If you look at the hedge funds, you get a sense of how distorted our markets are They ve been under-performing, for example, the S P 500 You could buy an ETF that charges next to nothing, and do better than the average hedge fund You re seeing big institutions pull money out of hedge funds and start buying ETFs and a lot of brand name hedge funds are folding or scaling back, and this is a really difficult time in that market It s not going to get better any time soon because governments are distorting markets more and more progressively by buying stocks indiscriminately, or forcing interes t rates down to artificially low levels, and generally messing around with the price signalling of free markets. A lot of the heavy hitters are shorting everything in sight and a big part of the reason is that they don t trust the markets anymore The people who have been worried about the market for years now have some high powered money on their side and assuming they re right again, things are going to get interesting in the coming year. Besides private placements, hedge fund money is also flowing into emerging markets stocks and bonds, and that s a direct result of these developed markets being distorted by government actions. CHANGES IN THE EQUITY MARKET. Corporate share repurchases involve hundreds of billions of dollars, but the flow into equities is slowing down dramatically Corporations have hit the point where they can t borrow anymore, and they re starting to be punished for borrowing so much money to buy back their stocks Buyback announcements are going down at the same time tha t corporate equity issuance is going up, for the first time since 2010 or so At the same time, corporate insiders are selling stock at a rapid pace These are things that usually precede bear markets or at least dramatic corrections in share prices. Somewhere in the US government there s an agency that s buying stocks aggressively right now They just don t tell us because they lie to us in ways some other central banks don t lie to their people. On the one hand you have everything that relates to market valuations and rational behavior on the part of private sector actors pointing to a bear market, but you also have governments and central banks with effectively unlimited funds buying aggressively That along with terrified foreign capital flowing into the US are two things, that if you are shorting the US market, you ve got to be worried about There are big forces contending, but we ve never been here so we can t say anything with certainty except that chaos is the inevitable result. This is an incredibly hard time to manage money because it s not about the fundamentals anymore If those are your only tools, then you ve got a real problem. I don t envy professional money managers and I think that for most of them, this is going to end really badly It s highly unlikely that you re going to make a perfect set of decisions when you re still learning about this new world. THE MARKET IS NO LONGER A MARKET. There s not a single financial market that isn t manipulated in some way by someone. There s no actual free market that you can point to and participate in This goes on until these guys run out of ammunition, when we don t accept these fictitious fiat currencies as having some intrinsic value As long as we re willing to be fooled in that way, then governments have ammunition to continue to manipulate the markets This could go on for a while, or blow up overnight there s no way to tell the timing. People are starting to pick up on the fact that governments are trying to devalue t heir currencies, but it s making more and more sense for people to move some of their fiat currencies into things that governments can t make more of That s been gold and silver, lately The gold and silver miners have been reporting phenomenally good numbers You re seeing precious metal miners report really low cost numbers and dramatically higher profit numbers, and they are almost alone in having this kind of a trend It doesn t mean they won t have a big correction going forward, but it does mean that there are suddenly healthy businesses, and that s a good place to be when you re worried about the health of rest of the world. We are now printing over 200B a month between the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England lately What they re doing is they re rotating it 95 of the world s currencies are Bank of Japan, the Sterling, the Euro, and the Dollar, and if you can rotate them around there s nowhere to run, other than hard currencies and outside that gain Its called the Bernank e Doctrine of Enrich-Thy-Neighbor. Almost everything in Keynesian economics is short term with terrible long term consequences We re living in previous Keynesian economists long term now and we re suffering the consequences of previous policy mistakes The guys in charge now are making bigger and bigger policy mistakes that we a few years from now, or our kids, will have to deal with. The idea that tweaking systems in the short run to keep it in a fictional equilibrium is all you need to do if you re a government running an economy, is profoundly mistaken. FRA Co-founder Gordon T Long discusses with Catherine Austin-Fitts about the future of the global economy, along with providing insight on recent events and potential expansion into space. Catherine is the president of Solari, Inc publisher of the Solari Report and managing member of Solari Investment Advisory Services, LLC Catherine served as managing director and member of the board of directors of the Wall Street investment bank Dillon , Read Co Inc as Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing Commissioner at the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development in the first Bush Administration, and was the president of Hamilton Securities Group, Inc Catherine has designed and closed over 25 billion of transactions and investments to-date and has led portfolio and investment strategy for 300 billion of financial assets and liabilities. Catherine graduated from the University of Pennsylvania BA , the Wharton School MBA and studied Mandarin Chinese at the Chinese University of Hong Kong She blogs for the Solari Report at. GLOBAL DEBT FOR EQUITY GAIN. It s equity for debt swap Since WW2 we ve been on the debt-growth model, growing the economy by issuing more government debt. We have literally evolved an infrastructure and a leadership of people who don t understand or have never participated in markets. They don t understand market economies they don t understand understand command and control economies We v e literally been living off debt growth, and that debt growth is slowing Part of the challenge of being in a debt-based economy is that people get out of alignment There s no better example than what s happening with student loans We re literally watching an entire industry make more money off their borrowers failure than their borrowers success. When you re integrating very complex equity at fantastic speeds, equity builds a much more aligned model between the parties We re definitely coming into a debt-for-equity swap worldwide. A PERIOD OF INSTITUTIONAL REFORM WHO LEADS. We have two challenges the leadership we developed over the last 50-70 years don t know how to work in a world where capital is dear and you have to optimize, particularly fundamental economics The other problem is that there are two ways to do an equity for debt swap one is on a managed process where you realign bottom up, the other is where you write everything down. Are we going to crash out the equity markets or are we going to foreclose and bankrupt everybody There s two ways to go. THOUGHTS ON BREXIT. I think one of the reasons that they wanted to get out is in fact not to get away from Germany and France, but to get away from the US and US domination in Europe. England is very concerned about where the United States will go if it continues to push the interpolar model, particularly if it continues to push a new cold war with Russia They want to make sure that as that process pushes out and we switch from a unipolar to a multipolar world that they are in control of British policy and can t be roped or tricked into anything. If you look at how the Americans have managed their financial system in the last three decades the Americans are basically developing a brand of organized crime. Asia and China are also becoming more important to the Commonwealth, and they re finding themselves in too many conflicts of interest positions between what the US wants to do and what they can do globally through the Co mmonwealth Their relationship with China is very old, very long, and very deep They basically own and control and run the offshore payments in Asia. GEOPOLITICS 3RD QUARTER. We re going through a long term rebalancing of the relationship between China and the United States For two decades China has been building its manufacturing capacity and economy by taking Chinese savings and lending that to the US, which would use it to hand out government cheques that would be used to buy Chinese goods Now the reality is that China needs to diversify away from that, and they re using their economic progress to finance other areas around the world Now they re building their own consumer economy. We re also watching tremendous concern because much of the push and growth in the economy comes from Asia If China slows down, what s that going to do to the global economy. There are tremendous issues in productivity Real productivity growth is slowing down in the G7 countries and globally Asian per capita in comes are merging towards the G7 per capita incomes If you take a slowing productivity growth along with a slowing increase in the labour pool, you re not watching the kind of inflationary growth we ve had for the last thirty years The problem the establishment has is the way they have really radical productivity growth is through technology, which is highly inflationary. The more they implement things that give them productivity growth the more deflation they get And that really conflicts with the fact that they want to continue siphoning off huge amounts of money. It s one of the reasons you re seeing more and more push for invasive control. There is a huge amount of money going into underground base infrastructure and evidence that we took the space program dark There is a tremendous emphasis on reinvesting in space, both on government and private sides. I ultimately came to the opinion that the reason we proceeded with the Europe GAAP was to create sufficient capacity to become a multi planetary civilization. If you re going to become a multiplanetary civilization, then you really do need to centralize much more in the financial system to umbrella more than one economy Our entire society is repositioning and making a massive investment in space. We have locked up enough technology to really deal economically with whatever we re dealing with The problem is if no one trusts the government, if no one trusts the leadership, how s that going to work. Mr Global wants a digital currency, and part of the reason is that if you want to create a global currency, you have to drive transaction costs dramatically down to reach into the emergent markets and the frontier markets. I think the blockchain is going to be instrumental to building very low cost digital global transaction systems. You can radically reduce a financial system out of very cumbersome payment systems Before the Brits voted for Brexit, the Bank of England was doing very significant work looking at blockchain and what it could do. How it rolls out is anybody s guess, and I think it s going to be very organic. The fundamental issue is that we live on a planet where the government system is unclear and invisible to us, and we re seeing more and more secrecy related to more and more of the economy And secrecy leads to privilege and privilege leads to corruption If you re in the financial system you re aware of the extent of the corruption, and there s no way to heal that problem without transparency. The more we can bring transparency to what s going on, the more we can delete a lot of very expensive and harmful privilege and what it s doing to our environment and what it s doing to our economy and what it s doing to our personal freedoms.07 21 2016 - Mish Shedlock KEY TAKE AWAY FROM BREXIT IS ONE THING, VOTERS ARE FED UP. FRA Co-founder Gordon T Long is joined by Mish Shedlock in discussing the details of Brexit, the BoJ, the current state of Illinois and much more. Mike Shedlock is a registered investmen t advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction He is also a contributing professor on Minyanville, a community site focused on economic and financial education. SOCIAL UNREST AND BREXIT. Key take away from Brexit is one thing, voters are fed up. What s unique about Italy is that it s a lot of individual people buying bank bonds and they can literally lose everything Furthermore social unrest in the US explains the rise of Donald Trump and the popularity of a socialist, Bernie Sanders This explains why Clinton, Sanders, and Trump are all against the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership It is a 5500 page document, there is absolutely no way it is simply about free trade Free trade can fit on a napkin it doesn t take 5500 pages to enforce a free trade agreement Make no mistake the TPP is about much more. Brexit is not the cause, it is the symptom. Speaking of r eal household income, the top 5 have done very well, the top 20 have done good, but the bottom 80 have done horribly in comparison and this all began in 1971 when Nixon took the US off the gold standard This is the same time when you had an explosion in credit, an explosion in corporate profits all of this began at the same time People are not blaming the Fed or the public union, they are blaming free trade when in fact we started losing manufacturing jobs long before NAFTA The number of people it takes to build anything is dramatically lower and this began well before any of the agreements happened The politicians can r make accurate decisions because they don t get it, they are a part of the wealthy class they are exempt from Obamacare and rules and regulations that the ordinary citizen abides to They live in their own isolated world and they just don t get it. The EU isn t about free trade, just look at the carve outs they have on France for agriculture Everyone in Europe pays more f or agriculture just to protect the inefficient French market. Then we had all these warnings that the UK was still going to have to abide by the migration rules of the EU if the UK wanted to work out any trade agreement, don t these arrogant politicians realize that this is exactly why the UK left Then if you look at bilateral trade, the UK has most of its trade with the rest of the world the UK runs a huge trade deficit with Europe and especially Germany Because of this the UK has the upper hand in negotiations due the bilateral balance of trade it has with the rest of Europe. There is certainly a story behind the numbers they are putting out The household survey numbers have been bad for 4 straight months meanwhile there is this volatility in the establishment survey We need to see another month or two of both surveys and maybe we will see a new trend. Throughout America, people are working multiple jobs because companies do not want to hire them full time and provide them full time ben efits Another example, New England nursing homes are facing problems keeping staff because of their 24 7 operations Workers cannot live off of one salary and so they are working 2-3 jobs. Every 5 mins somebody is leaving Illinois. The people leaving the most are the millennials and those a little bit older It is a sad environment, property taxes here are totally out of this world, and in Illinois you down own your own home because of property taxes The solution without a doubt is bankruptcy The Chicago public school system is bankrupt, period All that needs to happen is recognition of that fact but it is not even possible to declare bankruptcy because Illinois doesn t allow it. JAPAN STICKING WITH THE OLD. Japan is a bug in search of a windshield. I believe people are increasingly questioning whether central banks have things under control Japan just doesn t get it they are trying to work something that hasn t worked for 30 years The only thing they know how to do is print more money and pu sh liquidity out But the bigger problem is central banks can fix liquidity but they can t fix solvency.07 20 2016 - Ronnie Stoeferle IN GOLD WE TRUST. Ronald-Peter Stferle, Managing Partner Investment Manager at Incrementum discusses with FRA Co-founder Gordon T Long, the key points of his recent 2016 report, In Gold we Trust. Ronald was born 1980 in Vienna, Austria, is a Chartered Market Technician CMT and a Certified Financial Technician CFTe During his studies in business administration and finance at the Vienna University of Economics and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, he worked for Raiffeisen Zentralbank RZB in the field of Fixed Income Credit Investments After graduation, he participated in various courses in Austrian Economics. In 2006, he joined Vienna-based Erste Group Bank, covering International Equities, especially Asia In 2006, he also began writing reports on gold His six benchmark reports called In GOLD we TRUST drew international coverage on CNBC, Bloomber g, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times He was awarded 2nd most accurate gold analyst by Bloomberg in 2011 In 2009, he began writing reports on crude oil Ronald managed 2 gold-mining baskets as well as 1 silver-mining basket for Erste Group, which outperformed their benchmarks from their inception In 2014 he published a book on Austrian Investing. One of the main aspects of the report is that we are in a bull market again. Gold Price Target for June 2018 USD 2,300.Hedge fund managers and investors were buying gold and mining shares a couple of months ago and now we are entering what the Dow Theory calls the public participation pace 2,300 USD is our long term target which is based on the fact we are expecting rising inflation rates Right now we have a tremendous global slowdown and the strong USD has further fueled this slowdown. It is confirmed however that gold is rising in every currency And this is a strong sign for a bull market The world believed that the Fed would hike i nterest rates but that didn t happen and now with the Brexit we will definitely be in this current interest rate environment for longer, the US may even implement negative interest rates. The one obvious thing in the midst of this all is that central banks are really good at finding excuses for not raising rates now their excuse is Brexit. The strength of the dollar has had enormous consequences for commodities There is a very high negative correlation between the strength of the USD and the health of commodity markets Furthermore we have seen the effects in emerging markets that are highly dependent on a cheap dollar, the rising dollar acted as a rate hike. Expansion of Central Banks Balance Sheet 2007 vs 2015.There have been rumors about helicopter money and I am almost certain it will be implemented. With monetary experiments, central banks have been engaging into an all-or-nothing gamble, hoping it will eventually bring about the long promised self-supporting and sustainable recovery T he central banks leverage ratios and the sizes of the balance sheets relative to GDP have enormously risen in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis Lastly it doesn t help Bank of Japan BoJ has taken this insanity several steps further than their peers have managed the ECB has been comparably conservative, but is currently doing its best to catch up.5,000 Years of Data Confirm Interest Rates Have Never Been as Low as Nowadays. The longer interest rates stay this low, the more fragile the system will become. Negative interest rates are one of the last hopes to which policymakers cling Meanwhile 5 currency areas government bonds valued at more than USD 8 trillion have negative yields to maturity When the centrally planned bubble in bonds finally bursts, it will be abundantly clear how valuable an insurance policy in the form of gold truly is. Lose-lose situation for central bankers. The long-term consequences of low negative interest rates are disastrous e g aggravation of the real estat e and stock market bubbles, potential bankruptcies of pension funds and insurers. Normalizing interest rates would risk a credit collapse or rather a recession. Trade-weighted US Dollar Index lhs and the Effective Federal Funds Rate rhs. A strong dollar undoubtedly has consequences for the manufacturing industry, while a strong USD is also deflationary. The Fed wants a weaker dollar, but this doesn t happen in one day, it is a process We are making a really strong case for a recession happening in the US and it will have global consequences A recession is a very normal thing it is akin to your need for sleep It is a way for the system to replenish. If the Fed fails with the normalization of interest rates, the already crumbling narrative of economic recovery could collapse. We are comparing this year s oil prices to last year s and last year the big plunge in oil prices started in July, so just do to that we will have rising inflation rates But it is not only this there are many factors that indication rising inflation rates The fact that gold and mining shares have done so well since the beginning of the year is indicative that inflation is going to be a big topic. Value of Gold Production vs Volume of ECB and BoJ QE purchases 2016.Gold has to be physically mined, its global supply is exceedingly stable holding it provides insurance against monetary interventionalism and an endogenously unstable currency system. At a price of USD 1,200 per ounce, the ECB would have bought 4,698 tons of gold in the first quarter of 2016 which is more than 6 times the value of globally mined gold If the European QE program is continued as planned, it would be equivalent assuming prices don t change to the value of 21,609 tons of gold.12 of the total stock of gold of 183,000 tons ever mined Adding the volume of the BoJ the equivalent would be 39,625 tons of gold in 2016.Incrementum Inflation Signal. In the Long Term If Currencies Depreciate, Gold Should Appreciate. It is a guide for investment allocations in our funds depending on the signal s message we shift allocations into or out of inflation-sensitive assets. Proprietary signal based on market-derived data as a response to the importance of inflation momentum. Shorter reaction than the common inflation statistics. For the first time in 24 months the Incrementum Inflation Signal indicates a full-fledged inflation trend is underway. The market is a pain maximizer. In poker you have to bring some chips to the table and it s no coincidence that China is massively buying gold Not only has the central banked, but individuals as well Central bankers just don t like talking about gold They pretend that it s just lying around in the basement I think we are already in the early stages of an inflationary pattern, but it is important to never rule out a deflationary event Going forward we should prepare for much more government intervention and intervention from central banks We are seeing that the medicine doesn t work yet they will co ntinue to give doses of it. In this current global monetary experiment that we are in, it just makes sense to hold gold.07 15 2016 - Jeff Snider HOW LONG CAN BUYBACKS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MARKET WHICH IS STANDING ON A FUNDAMENTALLY FLAWED PREMISE. FRA Co-Founder Gordon and Jeffrey Snider, Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investment Partners discuss earnings, the Chinese Yuan, Japanese Yen and the falling credibility of central banks. As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra s client base Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing studies at Canisius College After graduating in 1996 with a Bachelor s degree in Finance, Jeff took over the operations of that firm while adding to the portfolio management and stock research process. In 2000, Jeff moved to West Palm Beach to join Tom Nolan with Atlantic Capital Man agement of Florida, Inc During the early part of the 2000 s he began to develop the research capability that ACM is known for As part of the portfolio management team, Jeff was an integral part in growing ACM and building the comprehensive research management services, and then turning that investment research into outstanding investment performance As part of that research effort, Jeff authored and published numerous in-depth investment reports that ran contrary to established opinion In the nearly year and a half run-up to the panic in 2008, Jeff analyzed and reported on the deteriorating state of the economy and markets In early 2009, while conventional wisdom focused on near-perpetual gloom, his next series of reports provided insight into the formative ending process of the economic contraction and a comprehensive review of factors that were leading to the market s resurrection In 2012, after the merger between ACM and Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff came on board Alhambra as H ead of Global Investment Research. It is no doubt that earnings have been under-performing. What s even more concerning is that not even is the top line falling off, but the cash flow is falling dramatically and this impacts credit along with everything else With no earnings and no cash flow it puts us in a high risk environment The only thing that has been holding up the market has been excessive corporate buybacks which has come out of cash flow, and to a lesser degree, borrowing But to borrow is tough when you don t have the cash flow to justify the credit ratings. How long can buybacks continue to support a market which is standing on a fundamentally flawed premise. We have had 4 to 5 quarters of falling revenue but the US market seems to ignore it At some point reality has got to set in But it is also important to note that trade problems are a systemic factor to the decline in earnings China s imports are down 17 year over year, but these imports are coming from basically the emergin g markets and commodity markets They have also borrowed upwards of 9 trillion USD in the last 7 years that has suddenly gotten very expensive for them, I think there is more pain to come. The health of the Yuan is tied into the global economy and the fact that the global economy is stumbling. Less growth in China combined with less growth around the world again increases financial risk which fuels more reluctance to funnel dollars into China it has become a vicious cycle The Chinese have no choice but to continue going in one direction, they are in a rock in a hard place As the Chinese Yuan has been falling, the Yen has been rising in strength This has become a huge issue for Japan to add to their already lost list of issues to deal with A fracture is likely around the corner, China and Japan cannot go long without devaluing the Yen. The markets are reassessing what central banks can actually do And what markets found was that central banks aren t actually as powerful as everyone believes them to be and Japan is a perfect example of that No matter what the BOJ does that Yen continues to move on up It fits into the paradigm of the economy, the financial risk, everyone reevaluating what central banks are capable of etc The markets are reevaluating central banks because they see that a tight money environment despite efforts from central banks to fuel stimulation. Some major European bank stocks are indicative of an incoming banking crisis We see already low interest rates around the world getting lower with each passing day this is indicative of tight money conditions Low rates are not stimulating. TROUBLING MATTERS OF DEBATE. Most troubling thing to me currently is that there are not many answers available. What I see is an unstable global currency regime which we are completely unprepared for There is no solution that has been presented that would allow for a stable currency to take over Euro dollars which clearly doesn t work Generally the central banks can fix liquidity problems, but they cannot fix solvency problems We see that the credit cycle has turned from non-performing loans so on and so forth. The idea behind QE for Japan, America and Europe was to kick start a robust recovery Now that central banks has lost credibility as well as support Then you have all the unintended consequences that come with almost zero money We have nearly zero price discoveries and risk is greatly mispriced. Policy makers and economists have simply run out of ideas. Desperation is a big role of why markets are reevaluating central banks If we go back 20 years where Alan Greenspan was a genius and he didn t even do anything, all he did was talk and he made a career out of not talking No matter what he did he was taken as a genius Whereas 20 years later, Janet Yellen sounds like a fumbling idiot no matter what she does All her actions come across as desperate because the credibility has been blown away The Fed has been forced into action and by being forced into action it has only highlighted what the Fed can t do. Resource allocation is the main benefit of price discovery it is the life blood of the economy The more we damage price discovery the more fatal situations will become. We need to look at this as an opportunity in the long run Now that the power of central banks has come to surface and credibility has been shot, it in turn opens the door to credible solutions The fact of the matter is that the economy is nothing like what it should be and people know that something is wrong and change is needed.06 30 2016 - Ellen Brown WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE TRANS-ATLANTIC TRADE AND INVESTMENT PARTNERSHIP TTIP. The Financial Repression Authority is joined by Ellen Brown, a well renown author and advocate of financial reforms FRA Co-founder, Gordon T Long sits with Ellen to discuss a myriad of topics including the TTIP, Monsanto, Blockchain Technology, and bank bail-in s Ellen Brown is an American author, political candidate, attorney, public speaker, an d advocate of alternative medicine and financial reform, most prominently public banking Brown is the founder and president of the Public Banking Institute, a nonpartisan think tank devoted to the creation of publicly run banks She is also the president of Third Millennium Press, and is the author of twelve books, including Web of Debt and The Public Bank Solution, as well as over 200 published articles She has appeared on cable and network television, radio, and internet podcasts, including a discussion on the Fox Business Network concerning student loan debt with the Cato Institute s Neil McCluskey, a feature story on derivatives and debt on the Russian network RT, 6 and the Thom Hartmann Show s Conversations with Great Minds Ellen Brown ran for California Treasurer in the California June 2014 Statewide Primary election. TRANS-ATLANTIC TRADE AND INVESTMENT PARTNERSHIP TTIP. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership TTIP is a proposed trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, with the aim of promoting trade and multilateral economic growth The American government considers the TTIP a companion agreement to the Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP The agreement is under ongoing negotiations and its main three broad areas are market access specific regulation and broader rules and principles and modes of co-operation. The controversial agreement has been criticized and opposed by unions, charities, NGOs and environmentalists, particularly in Europe The Independent describes the range of negative impacts as reducing the regulatory barriers to trade for big business, things like food safety law, environmental legislation, banking regulations and the sovereign powers of individual nations , or more critically as an assault on European and US societies by transnational corporations and The Guardian noted the criticism of TTIP s undemocratic nature of the closed-door talks , influence of powerful lobbyists , and TTIP s potential ability to undermin e the democratic authority of local government. A weaker element of this trade agreement is the ISDS, an investor dispute which is a guaranteed kangaroo court Corporations whose profits have been hurt by some actions of government can take these local governments to court But it is not a true court moreover it s a panel of 3 lawyers who are paid by the corporations The issue is that these corporations can sue the government but the government cannot sue the corporations It is a one way street, in which these corporations do not have to pay attention to legal authorities It is a court set up for the betterment of the corporations Furthermore they can not only sue for their lost profits, but they can also sue for lost projected future profits. This is not government by the people for the people rather it is government by the corporations and for the corporations. MONSANTO AND THE TTIP. Monsanto can now start a factory in Europe, which goes completely against what Europeans have been fighting for years This agreement squanders everything Europeans have achieved in this sort of protection. One of the goals of these agreements is to enforce the world to use our rules rather than the rules of the BRICS As soon as Gaddafi started talking about his gold backed banking system for northern Africa he became a target Saddam Hussein did the same thing that was going to take euros for oil which is counter to the whole petro dollar History shows that anybody who steers away from this system becomes a target If you go through the banking, the ones that control their own creation, Venezuela, Brazil, and Russia etc are facing high waters Furthermore there is not enough money in the system because of the nature of the system, where banks create the money and charge interest But ideally you need a central authority that can put some money out there I think the national dividend is a great idea, the Swiss just had a referendum but it didn t pass Nonetheless it s great for them to consider th is at all. The money shouldn t be coming from us, from our elected representatives, or from our central banks which should be representing us, but they don t they only represent themselves The Federal Reserve isn t there to serve our interest they are there to serve the banks. The blockchain is seen as the main technological innovation of Bitcoin, since it stands as proof of all the transactions on the network A block is the current part of a blockchain which records some or all of the recent transactions, and once completed goes into the blockchain as permanent database Each time a block gets completed, a new block is generated There is a countless number of such blocks in the blockchain Blocks are linked to each other in proper linear, chronological order with every block containing a hash of the previous block To use conventional banking as an analogy, the blockchain is like a full history of banking transactions Bitcoin transactions are entered chronologically in a blockchain just th e way bank transactions are Blocks, meanwhile, are like individual bank statements Based on the Bitcoin protocol, the blockchain database is shared by all nodes participating in a system The full copy of the blockchain has records of every Bitcoin transaction ever executed It can thus provide insight about facts like how much value belonged a particular address at any point in the past. Block chain technology can definitely revolutionize the banking system It is important to understand that at this point, nearly all alternatives are better than what we currently have in place The banks haven t been able to come up with a valid plan because they don t have the money they are creating lots of money only to give off the appearance. Banks create money on their books in response to our request for a loan. We now know that we basically create the money When we take out a loan, the bank takes your IOU and turns it into money, and that s where money comes from We, the borrower are the ones moneti zing our own IOU the bank merely just makes it official. We are moving towards a cashless society. The argument for going cashless is this whole monetarist theory that there is specific amount of money in the system, and the central banks control the money that s out there by playing with interest rates They lowered the interest rate to zero and still we have deflation, and now the theory is to lower it below zero which clearly makes it worse That means you re paying money to keep your own money in the bank. The reason people are waking up now is because they have been screwed The balance is tipping the people who are suffering are beginning to wake up to the reasons why.06 27 2016 - Peter Boockvar BREXIT THIS IS ALSO EXPOSING A LOT OF FAULT LINES WITHIN THE EU WITH BUREAUCRACY THE PUSH BACK AGAINST THE RULING CLASS. FRA Co-founder Gordon T Long is joined by Peter Boockvar in discussing the aftermath of Brexit and the effects on the future economy. Peter is the Chief Market Analyst with The Lindsey Group, a macro economic and market research firm founded by Larry Lindsey. Prior to joining The Lindsey Group, Peter spent a brief time at Omega Advisors, a New York based hedge fund, as a macro analyst and portfolio manager Before this, he was an employee and partner at Miller Tabak Co for 18 years where he was an equity strategist and a portfolio manager with Miller Tabak Advisors He joined Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette in 1992 in their corporate bond research department as a junior analyst He is also President of OCLI, LLC and OCLI2, LLC, farmland real estate investment funds. Peter graduated magna cum laude with a B B A in finance from George Washington University. The shock is going to lead into some chaotic-type thinking, but while this is a gigantic inconvenience and reason for continued economic slowdown, over time the UK will adjust and trade with Europe the same way Norway and Switzerland does For the rest of Europe, this raises the question of other countries deciding to leave. I think having the Euro is something they want to be a part of, but that is a major risk, no question. This is also exposing a lot of fault lines within the EU with bureaucracy and the pushback against the ruling class The failure of the EU in Brussels to address the refugee problem is a major concern, but immigration was a short term emotional decision. Certainly, if it wasn t for the immigration issue, I think it s pretty obvious that they would ve voted to remain. EU BANKING STRUCTURE. On a bank to bank basis, they re being crushed by the ECB and the negative interest rates That s the biggest threat to the European banking system, and their overleveraged banking sheets with too many nonperforming loans Not the UK vote. We should remember what the underlying fundamentals are that we re faced with every day That is, slowing economic growth globally In the US that is falling earnings, falling profit margins, a loss of credibility on the part of all central bankers and the Fed On t op of this is an asset price bubble over the last six years that leaves us with no margin of safety in order to face all these headwinds. The European Union can adjust to it, because this is a gigantic wake-up call and they have two choices they either let this bleed away or they say, you know, we have to change our ways, and some things for the better may come from that. The global growth story remains very challenged, asset prices remain very expensive, and central bankers have lost credibility Those are the risks that people should be mostly focussed on right now. China s been slowing for years Who doesn t know that China s going through challenges Even the Chinese stock market is down 50 from where it was in 2007 It s still part of a broader picture of slow growth. Past the very short term knee-jerk reactions sell the Euro, sell the Pound the Dollar has its own issues The Fed is stuck at 37 basis points throughout this economic cycle They likely won t raise rates until the expansion af ter the next recession So it s easy to sell other currencies to buy the Dollar right now, the Dollar has its own issues. The fair answer to that question is which is going to be the currency left standing And the only answer to that is going to be gold and silver, and that s obviously being reflected today The dollar is getting a knee-jerk bounce here, but I m not a believer in a strong Dollar because I think it itself is facing major headwinds. The Fed isn t raising interest rates, and the US economy is slowing Going from current growth to recession is not that far of a leap The determinant of that is what asset prices do, actually If the S P500 goes back to 1800, then the odds of a recession increase. The reason the stock market is used as the swing factor is because the last two recessions were led by a decline in asset prices, tech stocks, and housing prices We have our third bubble in front of us Tt s mostly been manifested in credit markets, but if you do get a decline in asset pric es, as it reprices to the global economic reality, that in itself could tip us over In the US, the consumer is the only thing keeping us from a recession, and a decline in asset prices could tip the consumers over from a psychological standpoint. The Fed has no policy right now They were so clear on how they were going to ease, and they ve been in the clouds on how they re going to exit they re stuck, they re trapped, and they essentially are writing policy with their fingers crossed. The US growth will likely continue to slow, we saw durable goods today that were very weak, we saw core capital spending within that is at a five year low, at a level last seen 10 years ago, and this was before the greater unknowns now coming out of Europe Growth will continue to slow and asset prices will continue to decline. In an election season and campaign, this is when peoples voices are heard Where that goes socially, who knows It ll depend on a lot of different things People are making their voices h eard, and hopefully the ruling class is listening. I think the whole commodity space has bottomed out I think investors need to look where it is most painful to look That remains emerging markets that have already gone through a five year bear market and have much better valuations than the rest of the world. In Europe right now, you re going to see carnage, but there s probably going to be some opportunity there There might be opportunities in the UK where selling is occurring due to the weaker pound. I m very nervous about the US stock market, which happens to be one of the most, if not the most, expensive in the world.05 27 2016 - John Rubino DEFLATION IS A DIRECT RESULT OF OUR ATTEMPTS TO CREATE INFLATION THROUGH EASY MONEY. John Rubino of and FRA Co-founder, Gordon T Long discuss the effects of the rise in eCommerce along with the rise of technology and the consequences we are facing from flawed perceptions of financial authorities. John Rubino is author of Clean Money Picking Winners in the Green Tech Boom Wiley, December 2008 , co-author, with GoldMoney s James Turk, of The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It Doubleday, January 2008 , and author of How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Bust Rodale, 2003 After earning a Finance MBA from New York University, he spent the 1980s on Wall Street, as a currency trader, equity analyst and junk bond analyst During the 1990s he was a featured columnist with and a frequent contributor to Individual Investor, Online Investor, and Consumers Digest, among many other publications He now writes for CFA Magazine and edits and. The big retail chains are generally seen as pretty good barometers of the health of the consumer And since in today s late-cycle debt-binge pseudo-capitalism the consumer drives the economy, the numbers coming out of the aforementioned retail chains should be cause for worry Ecommerce companies like amazon are making it easier and easier to stay at home Women now are more and more buying thei r clothes from the comfort of their homes which will soon make the need for malls obsolete. Furthermore by increasing the minimum wage rate in America, all of the fast food chains have begun automating cashiers with kiosks McDonalds has already begun doing this and this new direction has highlighted the lesser need for human labor within the retail sector Warehouses and factories used to employ many people throughout the world, now with the rise of technology, and particularly in America these places have become vastly automated In many cases you do not need bartenders, waiters, and cashiers All of these tasks can be automated through technology. I hate to be apocalyptic but the fact of the matter is we have multiple storms that are all playing in the same direction and they are feeding on each other as a link To link monetary policy and cheap money to robotics If you are a CEO and money is this cheap, you are going to invest into robotics These trends have accelerated the shift to robot ics and this wave is going to shock people and leave many without jobs. When interest rates are low it is a signal to the market to borrow lots of money Over the past couple of decades due to these low interest rates, the businesses of the world have begun mass borrowing of money to build factories This mass overcapacity in turn leads to deflation for example when you build too much steel you cannot just stop operations at the given plant the plant must continue to run to at least break the variable cost, which in the long run drops the price of steel. Deflation is a direct result of our attempts to create inflation through easy money. Cheap money was not going to bring demand forward any more than two years, but what it would do is create a dramatic over supply We have had 9 trillion leveraged into the emerging markets that basically went into fueling overcapacity for the past several years When you get overcapacity you lose price power and then cash flows begin to be depleted This was e asily predictable, there was no economist that would say otherwise, however the mistake was that they thought we had some sort of recovery happening or they ignored that and thought Japan had the right approach. The people making high level financial decisions the past decade are clueless They have no idea what the consequences of their decisions are The people in charge now are getting exactly the opposite of what their predecessors expected when they implemented QE, and ran massive government deficits. This is going to force another wave of major layoffs We already have a gutted middle class we are killing the golden goose that actually buys consumer products Maybe what was really missed is that all of this economics was based on a standalone country We live in a globalized economy now that has labor arbitrage, and the central banks have underestimated the global impacts of these policies. We are at the point where there are no more options Anything we do from now on will have some sort of unintended consequences that will come back to bite us. The Japanese Central Bank and the ECB both took steps to devalue their currencies and they got the opposite result the currencies went up If we have gotten to the point where all the emergency measures central banks implement do not seem to work then it can t be interpreted as a sign that we are coming or have come to the end of this process. The narrative has now been shifted to a massive move of increasing central banks balance sheets that will be based on fiscal spending of infrastructure. James Rickards in his new book, The New Case for Gold argues that to get the dollar down and force inflation into the system a way to do it is for the government to drive up the price of the gold The enemy of the government has been gold, but it can also be the friend of the government in a crisis situation Similarly, Catherine Austin Fitts argues the 1 has sucking wealth out of the US society for the past few decades and they have basically stolen just about as much as they think they can steal Now it is in their interest to go back to sound money to protect what they have stolen This is another reason for the gold standard to eventually look useful to the people in charge.05 25 2016 - YRA HARRIS WE RE IN A WHOLE NEW BALLPARK THE FED S OWN MECHANISM MAY BE BROKEN. FRA Co-founder Gordon T Long discusses with Yra Harris about the yield curve of US Treasury bonds along with the G7 meeting and the effect of Germany and ECB on the rest of the world. Yra Harris is a recognized Trader with over 32 years of experience in all areas of commodity trading, with broad expertise in cash currency markets He has a proven track record of successful trading through combination of technical work and fundamental analysis of global trends historically based analysis on global hot money flows He is recognized by peers as an authority on foreign currency In addition to this he has Specific measurable achievements as a member of the Board of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME Yra Harris is a Registered Commodity Trading Advisor, Registered Floor Broker and a Registered Pool Operator. He is a regular guest analysis on Currency Global Interest Markets on Bloomberg and CNBC He has been interviewed for various articles in Der Spiegel, Japanese television and print media, and is a frequent commentator on Canadian Financial Network, ROB TV. LOW ON 2 10 YIELD CURVE. It looks like we have another temporary bottom After we took out that previous level we were talking 120 basis points, but now we re trading at 95 The big problem is going to be the 75 basis point area, but we ve already taken out the lows that were made in 2007-2008 What it reflects is that the Fed is flattening as they re talking about raising rates. Usually with this flattening of the curve, the 2 10 which is called the investor s curve instead of the speculator s curve , indicates one of two things Firstly, rates are either too high or going too high on the short end rel ative to what the market perceives is its potential growth in the future They re getting nervous. Usually I would say this is a very solid indicator and that the Fed has really waited too long to do anything Which flies in the face of everything we ve heard in the last two weeks. There is a dynamic in play in the global markets With the vast amount of central bank purchases, they have skewed the markets so badly that the markets are trying to get a read on what this all means Because everything is relative value, 60 of the developed market bonds are in negative territory That skews everything, so we can t get a real feel for what this curve means If that s the reason the curve is flattening, then we re in a whole new ballpark because it s a global phenomenon at a level we ve never seen before and that s going to affect everything It breaks the Fed s own mechanism. Bond markets need to be a signally mechanism to be effective, and if you ve broken the signalling mechanism, well, we re flyin g here in uncharted territory then it becomes a question of, who s in the pilot s seat. That s what the world is trying to figure out do the people in the pilot s seat know what they re doing and have confidence in what they re doing or are we really flying blind here.5 30 CURVE FLATTENING. The 5s30s is where speculators like to play and that curve is actually flattening more as they seem to be able to exert more pressure, but that might be reflective of relative value In a yield-starved world, yield-starved because central banks have so dynamically shifted everything everything through their massive purchases, people are stuck having to really reach for things. The 5 30 is more dynamically telling me that the Fed may be erring in raising rates, that they waited too long. People in Europe have 3 10 of GDP yield It s not even enough to cover their budget situations Europe is in a very difficult situation here That might mean the Fed has waited too long. THE PREVIOUS G7 MEETING IN SHANGHAI. I don t think anything major came out of Shanghai because I ve been around this business for a long time and nothing could ve kept that quiet. Maybe something did take place, but then we consider June of 1998, when the Chinese were much more concerned, and two weeks before Bill Clinton goes to China, Bob Rubin makes a speech about the strength of the Dollar and the US Treasury started buying Yen and selling Dollars contrary to what Rubin said The Chinese were very upset with the weakening of the Yen and put pressure on the US to try and correct it Now in Shanghai, we get the sense that the Chinese were displeased with the recent 30 depreciation of the Japanese Yen and made their voices known. If you tied that into Shanghai, you can see that the Japanese sent a signal saying, when we have displeasure, and since we re an autocratic government, we can move in a very quick, dynamic fashion And when we move, we ll disrupt the markets, so you better take care of this situation cause we believe t he Yen is too weak against the Yuan So now the Japanese are unhappy, so this will get interesting The Japanese have voiced their concern with this one sided depreciation. SPECULATION ON RESULTS OF THE G7 MEETING. The Japanese could seriously weaken the Yen if they started buying other countries bonds So there was a conservative effort by the BOJ to buy US treasuries and European debt. Any time a central bank intervenes or starts to buy some of these assets in an aggressive manner, it s being done to weaken your currency There s no better way to word it. The Swiss are actively intervening in the market, the Norwegians are maintaining stability If the BOJ were to start buying US Treasuries, the Dollar-Yen would weaken dramatically cause that would be a central bank policy to directly weaken their currency by buying other countries assets They will be warned against doing that, but the Japanese retail investors and pension funds are under a lot of pressure to deliver some modicum of return wi th negative rates in Japan hampering their ability to achieve a positive return. What I think the biggest issue the G7 will speak to is what I call the Larry Summers Agenda he s trying to get a global fiscal stimulus. He wants everyone to bring forward all their infrastructure spending now It would make the Chinese very happy, but it certainly seems to be a desire to craft some type of global fiscal stimulus to take the pressure off the fiscal monetary policy. People talk about the Chinese, but the Germans are much more a propagator of current account surpluses, but they save and save and save. We are totally opposed to nations using their currencies to gain a trade advantage There will be a lot spoken about the need for fiscal stimulus. THE PROBLEM OF EUROPE. Europe is 27 different situations looking for a common policy, and that just can t possibly happen Germany has full employment and budget surplus, current account surplus, and it sits there with negative interest rates, then everything you ve told me is wrong What has to happen is you get very robust inflation in Germany, cause you re keeping rates way below whatever metric is used. Your work is in financial repression Nobody in the world right now is more financially repressed than the German people. We have the German constitutional court ruling against these OMTs and the ability of the ECB to actually perform fiscal policy through their monetary policy. The markets are complacent The European bond markets have yields that are preposterous. Germany is Europe s credit card the ECB, yes, they can print money but they have no credibility without the German credit card. No one would buy German debt without someone guaranteeing it There is no Euro bond It doesn t exist People keep saying they need it, but in order to do that there has to be someone guaranteeing that credit, and that s the Germans European debt is at 8-9 and this is going to be the wild card They have swallowed the concept that the ECB is some sort of brilli ant organization with credibility It has x amount of balance sheet assets which are growing tremendously. The ECB would be equivalent to the Great Depression in 1932 Austria, when the credit gestalt went under The ECB sits in that role If the Germans say they re not going to be a part of this, the world blows apart financially They re hoping to pile all this on so the world will tell the Germans they can t leave This is such a surreptitious way of forcing them to be the guarantors. Meanwhile the ECB is buying 80b more Euro s worth of credit every month They don t even have to buy it They re doing it because they need product They re in a hurry to keep piling all this debt on the ECB, who kept saying we ll do whatever it takes and the market accepted that, and over the course of this whatever it takes they kept piling on this debt. If you want to see an accord, there s going to be a fiscal stimulus accord. FRA Co-founder Gordon T Long is joined by Kristin Tate in discussing her book and the outlook of Millennials on the upcoming US election. KRISTIN TATE is is a political columnist and author of Government Gone Wild. In her book she says D C politicians are shipping our friends and family overseas to fight in wars we shouldn t be fighting They monitor our emails, record our phone calls, and peer into our snail mail They spend our hard-earned cash on things no disciplined family would buy They tell us who we can marry and what we can put in our bodies They throw us in overcrowded prisons for smoking pot They take lavish trips around the world, staying in five-star hotels and it comes straight out of our paychecks This isn t freedom. Government Gone Wild is a brash, bold ride through the carnival of absurdities that our broken system has become This isn t about Democrats vs Republicans it s about inspiring hard working Americans to give a damn so we can take our country back This is your wakeup call You re not anywhere near as free as you think you are but you can be We re no t as prosperous as we once were but we can be. GOVERNMENT GONE WILD. You could really open my book on any random page and start reading and not be confused. If you want Millennials to not be apathetic you have to get their attention in a way that will let you keep their attention They grew up with technology and have a shorter attention span, so it s unrealistic to expect a young person who s not already politically involved to pick up some long boring book. The book takes the reader through various topics everything from social issues to taxes to foreign affairs. The main message throughout this book is that whenever too much government gets involved, usually our freedoms are eroded. Once you get young people interested, once you get the conversation going, it s usually easier to keep their attention The battle s getting their attention initially. The book is a really light read, filled with a lot of shocking facts that a lot of people don t know about our government, but it s presented in a very fun way. One thing I really try to show Millennials is how we really need to start demanding accountability from our politicians. We re scraping to get by and all this money we re using to pay our taxes are going toward these sanctimonious politicians to live like kings and queens There s a lot of things we can do to turn this country around, but you ve got to show young people why they have to care and why they need to demand accountability from our politicians. ON THE SPECTRUM BETWEEN BERNIE SANDERS AND DONALD TRUMP. Poll after poll shows that Millennials tend to be more socially accepting of diverse lifestlyles, so maybe more socially to the left, but we re also fiscally conservative It s kind of libertarian. I would say that I tend to be a representation of that socially more liberal and fiscally conservative It s kind of libertarian. Even if they don t know what the word libertarian means, if you ask them about these issues many young people want the government to stay out of our personal lives and out of our wallets. A few decades ago, something like gay marriage was very controversial, but this generation has grown up with these social issues and they are a little closer to home than previous generations. I see the future of the Republican party as being a little bit more libertarian, and if these older Republicans don t start understanding that you re going to keep seeing younger Millennials flock to the Democrats because they really see these social conservative issues as deal-breakers. CURRENT ELECTION ISSUES. You have a record number of Millennials living with their parents, the job market is awful, and you do have a lot of young people who do have college degrees working low wage jobs We re depressed, and that s why Bernie Sanders is doing so well He s sending a message that sounds positive to young people about the future, even though socialism would destroy this generation A lot of young people don t realize that when they hear him talk about income inequa lity and wealth distribution. If the Republicans or Hilary Clinton want to grab some of this Millennial vote, they need to start showing young people how their policies will lead to jobs and how their policies will bring prosperity to all Americans That s what young people care about. They get these soundbites of positivity from Bernie and that sounds better than anything else they ve heard That s why they re so excited about Bernie It s depressing, but young people are all about bumper sticker politics if you want to get their attention you need to spread your message in catchy, easy to understand ways Bernie Sanders doesn t really need to show young people how he s going to make these things a reality because right now he s the only one giving them any hope at all. There s a lack of understanding of what capitalism is, but the fact that young people say they like free enterprise gives me home that fiscal conservatives can still spread their message to young people effectively. The moveme nts behind Bernie and Trump are very similar People are fed up with the Republicans and the Democrats The voters are fed up with these establishment bureaucrats who do not look out for the people, on both sides of the aisle That s why they flock to Bernie Sanders. Although I don t love Trump or Bernie, the fact that both of them are so popular does give me hope because they re both outsiders and it shows me that people want something new and that they understand that the system is broken. If Hilary gets the nomination, young people will continue to be frustrated Hopefully they ll start to understand once they get into the job market, they ll understand that we need more capitalism and less socialism. I do think that politics as we know it is changing forever in the US I think this whole notion of having two establishment parties is crumbling I see more apathy than ever, but I also see in some other way more awareness of what s going on. It s easier to hold people more accountable because o f technology, and this increased awareness of what our politicians are doing and this connectiveness because of technology will only make the two party system crumble even more We re seeing this huge movement toward outsiders, toward politicians who are not career bureaucrats, and we ll continue to see that in future elections. More government involvement is not what we need we have too much socialism right now capitalism is our friend, the job market is our friend, a great corporate environment is our friend I want Millennials to wake up to this stuff and hopefully vote in a way that would lead to these for a free market policy down the road.05 13 2016 - Wolf Richter TRANSPORTATION RECESSION SIGNALS RETAIL PROBLEMS AHEAD. Financial Repression and the Structural Concerns for the Retail Market. FRA co-founder Gordon T Long is joined by Wolf Richter to discuss the struggling retail market and its subsequent impact on the U S economy as a whole which are a result of the recent financial cris is. Wolf Richter is the founder of Wolf Street Corp In his cynical, tongue-in-cheek manner, he muses on about economic, business, and financial issues, Wall Street shenanigans, complex entanglements, and other things, debacles, and opportunities that catch his eye in the US, Europe, Japan, and occasionally China You can subscribe to his free emails and keep in touch with Wolf Richter s research and news through his cynical, tongue-in-cheek manner, he muses on about economic, business, and financial issues. He has over twenty years of C-level operations experience, including turnarounds and a VC-funded startup He earned his BA and MBA in Texas and his MA in Oklahoma, worked in both states for years, including a decade as General Manager and COO of a large Ford dealership and its subsidiaries But one day, he quit and went to France for seven weeks to open himself up to new possibilities, which degenerated into a life-altering three-year journey across 100 countries on all continents, much of it overland He has written two books BIG LIKE CASCADE INTO AN ODYSSEY and TESTOSTERONE PIT. Concerns of Financial Repression. Under financial repression the money that you earn does not compensate for the forward inflation on your investment This is slowly eating up the savings of investors and bond holders in a period of low inflation, and is done so by the central bank to help aid governments and debtors in paying off the massive pileups of debt We can expect this trend of financial repression is to go on for the time being due to the position most corporate firms and the government is in right now, as most economists believe a slight increase in interest rates would be catastrophic for the economy. We are in a booming online retail environment which is not going to slow down any time soon The problem with retail space is a structural problem due to the surge in online shopping Everywhere we look in urban environments there are strip malls on every corner of the neighborhood and mult iple outlets for the same retail store exist all across the states With the drop in consumption in goods and services, a recession in the goods produced within the U S On a weekly basis we are seeing more and more stores shed employees and closing stores all across the country in order to cut operation costs and stay afloat. This creation of demand is just smoke and mirrors. At the same time consumers are growing older, and had planned to live off their savings However, over the past years due to the shocks to the FIRE economy we have seen virtually zero growth in their savings Causing shifts in their purchasing patterns towards cheaper and more affordable goods, trying to save on all levels and spend as less as possible This all stems from financial repression, there have been no increases in demand but we still see an immense amount of retail space, creating a false sense of demand to consumers, showing promise of a improving economy at a time where it is nearly impossible to thrive. When you have a transportation recession like this, it tells you something about the goods produced in the economy in the United States, and it s not over. There has been a large increase in stalled transportation vehicles including trucks and trains which simply have gone out of business due to a lack of demand in the market This shows us the effects of the 2008 financial crisis still linger on heavily even today The lack of demand and surplus of supply in many sectors of the economy including retail is continuously putting the U S economy in a downward spiral and has kept it on the brinks of another recession. If service economy gives, if it starts to break apart even in a minor way I think we ll have a recession. Luckily the service economy is still holding on and showing signs of improvement and growth However, if the service economy gives out even in a minor way, the impact on the rest of us considering the tight situation at the moment will certainly throw the U S into another recession within the coming fiscal year Factoring the decline in goods produced is a great concern for the U S since the goods consumed market is already collapsing. This causes an alarm for even more concern in the economy, since the financial crisis even under financial repression we are still seeing a steady rise in debt This debt carried over from the financial crisis affects every major company in the world When these companies can no longer hold their own Wolf Richter believes that we will have a real risk for credit default. The Changing of the credit cycle. What concerns me the most the amount of corporate debt, the amount of government debt and state municipal debt that s out there since the financial crisis. Credit rating companies have begun downgrading almost everything, meaning companies are no longer able to lend, and losing faith in many companies which can no longer continue doing business The rise in bankruptcy alone should be a definitive sign of the turning credit cycle This is not limited to any single industry, oil, energy, and retail especially companies are going bankrupt as their debts and expenses simply cannot keep up with the demand that is required to keep them running. In total there were about 3500 commercial bankruptcies, and that s up 33 from a year ago. Right now it is the number of small companies that are making headlines in failure to overturn their debt into sustainability So even though there has been an increase in bankruptcies filed this year there is still a large sum of debt which is held in majority by the big fish of the sea This provides us with further affirmation of the psychological behaviors of consumers in the economy hinting it to a difficult time for not only continuing to run business as usual but also for entrepreneurs As the demand is simply not as it used to be in the past, and should expect a slow and painful recovery out of this worldwide debt. Abstract Written by Saad Gohir.05 12 2016 - Satyajit Das DISCUSSES FINANCIAL REPRESSION THE AGE OF STAGNATION. FRA Co-founder Gordon T Long is joined by Satyajit Das in discussing the consequences of financial repression and current policy making, along with the effects of the Chinese economy. SATYAJIT DAS is an internationally respected expert in finance, with over 35 years experience Das presciently anticipated many aspects of the global financial crisis in 2006 He subsequently proved accurate in his warnings about the ineffectiveness of policy responses and the risk of low growth, sovereign debt problems anticipating the restructuring of Greek debt , and the increasing problems of China and emerging economies In 2014 Bloomberg nominated him as one of the fifty most influential financial thinkers in the world. Mr Das is the author of a number of key reference works on derivatives and risk management Das is the author of two international bestsellers, Traders, Guns Money 2006 and Extreme Money 2011 His latest book is A Banquet of Consequences 2015 published in North America as Age of Stagnation. He was featured in Charles Ferguson s 2010 Oscar-winning documentary Inside Job, the 2012 PBS Frontline series Money, Power Wall Street, the 2009 BBC TV documentary Tricks wi th Risk, and the 2015 German film Who s Saving Whom. VIEWS ON FINANCIAL REPRESSION. It started around 2008 and prices relate to debt Fundamentally, the way the surprises were dealt with were in a very old fashioned way to grow and inflate their way out of debt As we know, this process hasn t really worked, and there s really only two choices left One of them is to default, which is hugely unpalatable because writing off peoples savings like that has consequences for future consumption, and a huge amount of wealth loss in the world The other option is financial repression, which is a way of managing excess debt The most common way is by very high levels of taxation. I don t think people, when talking about financial repression, are talking about taxation as being something that shouldn t happen. There s obviously a point of taxation which is to run social services and infrastructure and government, but at some point under the condition of high debt it starts to bring taxation rates up for t he simple reason of using the state to absorb everyone s debt, in other words socialize the debt and then try to use the taxes to pay it off That can be hugely unproductive for the economy but we re starting to see it happen around the world. The next stage is what we call financial repression, where we start to devalue the debt The most important way we can see that is through a period of low interest rates. People forget that since 2008, we ve had over 600 interest rate cuts globally Interest rates are pretty much around zero around the world. Roughly 30 of global government bonds are trading at negative yields Either you have nominal yields that are positive but below the rate of inflation to use that to try and ease the purchasing power of debt Alternatively as we re now finding that because inflation is low and the debt levels are so high, we ve gone to negative interest rates There s something perverse about negative interest rates because people get very technical about it This is actually a way of writing down the debt, and are very dangerous, as the market s reaction to the negative interest rates in Japan and Europe have proven. Firstly, there s no real proof that these types of policies are going to create growth or inflation They ve been put in place to write down the debt First we have -5 interest rates, and after ten years we ve written off half the debt That s now a sort of stealth tactic the central banks and policy makers have put in place Everybody knows that they said, look, in the next crisis we re going to cut interest rates and interest rates are so low that we re going to have to go to negative territory, but we all know that if we go to negative territory people are just going to take money out of the bank and just hold the cash. They re going to have to stop people from taking out cash, and the interesting way that s being channeled by policy makers is that they re pretending that banning cash is necessary to prevent criminality or terrorism. Ther e are also other forms of financial repression as well, like redirecting investment There s a whole variety of these measures that we see come into play, and it all has to do with the fact that they try to use these measures to deal with the debt crisis. I would argue that it s not going to be able to be dealt with, and it creates enormous social and political pressures What we re going to see is a period of financial repression, which is very, very dangerous. POLITICAL EXTREMISM AND POLICY MAKING. We re starting to see signs of this via the political extremism that s starting to come about The reason these popular extremist policies are being promoted in the United States and elsewhere is because financial repression and the lack of honesty of dealing with the world s financial and economic problems. If you look at this period of history and the way the Europeans have deal with the European Debt Crisis, it s almost single-handedly created parties like Ciudadanos in Spain, but in Germany t hese policies would never have gotten any sort of traction Even the German Finance Minister has said that these parties are really the creation of the economic policies that people are playing around with, and that s setting up this confrontation we see in play between Germany and the European Central Bank. I honestly don t know how it s going to end In the 1920s and 1930 when similar pressures built up, it didn t actually have a very good ending. THOUGHTS FOR THE NEXT YEAR 12-14 MONTHS. I think, fundamentally, we know what the problems are it s debt. It built up in the system, it s not properly funded, we know the global imbalances are unsustainable, and add on top of that the financialization of the economy where people are rewarded for trading claims on real cash flows and real assets. You have financial institutions which are too big to fail but too big to jail, and frankly, too big to regulate or too big to manage. So all of those we know, and on top of that there s climate issues, reso urce scarcity, so we ve got a very toxic set of problems Things are going to play out in one of three scenarios One is the Lazarus economy , where all the skeptics are wrong and everything goes back to normal It s not likely, but it might happen The most likely one is a period of stagnation, which might happen with a 70 chance What happens is we re stuck in this environment of very low growth, disinflation, the debt keeps building up, we use policies like financial repression and low interest rates in a predominant way, and we stretch this out for as long as we possibly can One lesson we learned from Japan is that we can t do this for a very long time The policy makers are going to try to keep this game going for as long as possible The problem is that it s not sustainable. The last scenario is the one with the 30 chance, which is the crash The question is whether that happens suddenly, or if we get gradually to where the system breaks down You have all these nodes of instability going on and it s all held together by chicken wire, which is basically central banks putting more and more money in and coming up with more and more far fetched and less effective schemes. The crucial thing that people forget is that this is the ultimate act of faith The central bankers who completely misread things in the lead-up to 2007 and contributed to the crisis have suddenly after that becomes the saviors. At some point in time it ll turn into, oh dear, the emperor has no clothes, they don t actually know what they re doing. What people need to keep in mind is that it ll be very different from 2007-2008 The problem is much bigger, and the emerging markets that were a source of strength in 2008 and provided demand for the people in advanced economies, along with abundant savings that helped push the problem, are no longer a source of strength The third thing is the fact that the policy makers are all wrong The social and political pressures are in a much worse place than 2007-2008 and so cially the tensions are starting to build up. Whatever happens now will be far more difficult to control than they were in 2007-2008 and I think essentially we are at a very dangerous inflection point And the one thing I do know is if something cannot go on, it won t go on, and if something happens it happens suddenly. The central banks have this under control for the moment, but in complex systems they tip over extremely suddenly and extremely quickly, and none of us know what the trigger will be, but there will be a trigger and in hindsight it would be obvious it was the trigger. Everyone now is chasing risky assets because it s the only way they can feed themselves. INVESTMENT DIRECTION AND PREPARATION. In this crazy world of the 1980s onward, we sort of reversed priority and put capital gains first, income next, and security of capital last. You have to think about how to recover, rather than worry about capital gain One of the key things is to find things that people need food, oil, sca rce resources, and guns security. You re looking for areas that are absolutely crucial in the terms of the actual needs of ordinary people, and that will be protected. The policies are hugely repressive because they re forcing people to take risks with their savings, and intentionally they re going to go broke or grow poorer over time. I m actually astonished, when you mentioned pitchforks earlier, that investors haven t picked up their pitchforks and gone after some of these policy makers, though given time I suspect that s going to happen. The pre-2008 period was very sound, but after that the Chinese Public Bureau placed a strong emphasis on social stability and launched a program to create employment opportunities What that s done is increased the amount of debt in China In 2000 the amount of debt was 2T In 2007 it went to 7T In 2014 it s 28T It s gone up by a factor of 14 times. You can t have that kind of growth being leveraged by debt in a financial system without consequences. If you look at where the money s gone, it s this massive overcapacity in their industries, there s a lot of real estate about 15-20 of China s GDP is tied up in real estate It s inevitable that they re going to have some problems The last few debt crises that happened in China, the States stepped in, created asset management companies, bought the bad loans to the banks, selected government guarantees on some bonds, and sold it back to the same banks and let time to take care of the problem. The problem now is the bad debt problem is much larger, and they re not going to have the same GDP growth that they had The way that they re trying to deal with this is by keeping deposit rates low and the system very liquid so the banks can gradually absorb these losses. I think the best case is that China becomes like Japan, which is putting all these bad debts on their balance sheet and gradually slowing down. The problem is if they miscalculate, the problem is bigger and comes upon them in a way that is much quicker that you could potentially get a banking meltdown The problem with that is that would spread from China out very quickly because there s about a trillion dollars of exposure that far end lenders have to Chinese banks and Chinese companies.05 12 2016 - Charles Hugh Smith WHY OUR STATUS QUO FAILED IS BEYOND REFORM. The Financial Repression Authority is delighted to have Charles Hugh Smith, prolific writer on the web and author of the highly acclaimed book, Why Our Status Quo Failed and is Beyond Reform FRA Co-Founder, Gordon T Long delineates with Charles on the core topics that are mentioned in his book as well as go over key diagrams to supportive diagrams. Charles Hugh Smith is the Publisher of the site Of Two Minds From its humble beginnings in May 2005, Of Two Minds now attracts some 200,000 visits a month and has been listed No 7 in CNBC s top alternative financial sites His commentary is featured on a number of sites including The American Conservative, Peak Prosperity and AOL s Daily Finance site He has written eight books Charles Hugh Smith graduated from the University of Hawaii, Manoa in Honolulu Charles Hugh Smith currently resides in Berkeley, California and Hilo, Hawaii. Mr Smith s articles, which critique the status quo, had influence from Braudel s historical account of early capitalism Smith s economic works stress the value and efficacy of decentralizing power and wealth, the individual s power of self-determination and the value of community, which in his view has been diminished by the state His blog covers an eclectic range of timely topics finance, housing, Asia, energy, long term trends, social issues, health diet fitness and sustainability. I wanted to encapsulate in a very short form that the status quo is broken and it is not going to be able to solve the problems In order for us to move forward we first need to accept this reality. The core thesis in this book is that humanity has 6 problems which are interconnected. Entrench poverty There are hundreds of millions of people who remain in severe poverty and they do not have access to resources to better their situations. The idea that we are going to reach every human on the planet has been proven incorrect. Using more of everything in a world of finite resources We have to adopt a de-growth model, which is to make better use of the resources we have instead of just relying on consuming more. Wages is the only way we have of distributing the output of an economy. The share of our national output that is going to wages is declining The rise of automation and technology has decreased the demand for human labour and this will continue as a trend into the indefinite future. When you consolidate power in a central state you consequently give an upper hand to the wealthy to have influence over that centralized power. I call it cartel state capitalism and we see it everywhere where the industries are controlled by a handful of players who have a great degree of influence. Depending on credit for everything. We are borrowing from the future to fund present day consumption. The current system pays people regardless of their productivity and contribution. People need work, they need livelihoods and they need a positive social role within their community Paying them to sit home and do nothing creates a whole new assortment of problems People need work and a sense of importance and contribution. It is all the central planning arrangements and policies that have been implemented since the 2008 Financial Crisis One new normal is the federal government ownership of student debt It is now on this incredible increase where the government is buying all of the student loans because it is the only way to mask the bankruptcy of the student loan system The GDP in the US, EU, Japan and other developed economies has been subpar It has been barely over 1 and it is being driven by extraordinary expansion of debt More debt is working against us because there is not enough real wealth being generated to pay for it Throwing more debt at it does not work Another new normal is this increasingly popular practise of growing more debt to hide your nonperforming loans. The problem is that the debt is inextinguishable The central banks can do a great job in creating liquidity but they cannot solve solvency problems And this is suggesting the central issue that debt is a solvency problem now. The fed creates money out of thin air and buys more assets and then it levels off until markets and the economy weaken Then the Fed ramps up the balance sheet again which is shown by the stair step pattern of the figure The Feds balance sheet never declines it only plateaus briefly and then goes up again The new normal is that central banks are cropping up markets because if the markets collapse to their true value it would reveal the bankruptcy of the entire system. In The New Normal recovery, the percentage of the population with a job has advanced all the way back up to where it was 40 years ago, in the late 1970s During booms eras many more people were employed, but today we are at employment levels similar to that of the 1970s Fewer people are working an d they are earning less money if we were to adjust for inflation, it s stagnation. Most of the gains that have been registered are flowing to the top 5 This is not just because of a few greedy people at the top have taken the gains, but also the factor of mixing global competition with technology places a premium on workers who have the skillet set to generate value with increasing technology Just working in a factory or doing some white collar job does not create a premium in an economy that is pressured by global competition and automation. Money velocity has been falling and everybody is concerned as to why it is doing so, but the fact of the matter is that there is no growth The jobs themselves are paying minimal which is why people are dropping out of the labour force to start their own personal endeavour of sorts. A notable feature of the chart is the divergence being shown in 2008-2009 and this is when we went into hyper printing of money to put the system on life support The produ ctivity numbers in the developed world has fallen off there is lack of growth Growth in present day is not real, the growth we are seeing is artificial. We all know the system broke since the last crisis We now need structural reform of entitlements We need a new form of capitalism that is more accessible to people and that is not just controlled from the top through central planning We are having a hyper-monetary policy where the status quo is looking to central banks to solve all the problems by issuing more debt and liquidity These problems cannot be solved this way we have to deal with the reality that we need deep structural reforms. If you observe caterpillars in construction sites you will notice the driver has many levers in front of him to control An economy is managed the same way, there are many levers to pull, but we are running the economy pulling the same lever and that is monetary policy The other levers are fiscal policy which we are not using, public policy, and taxation policy and so on These are elements that come out of the political process, it is on political leaders to realize this and make appropriate decisions. One of the things you can have a lot of faith in is mankind It will reset, we will survive and we will come out of it, but unfortunately it leads to crises and it is always the innocent that are most burdened. yeah, lets head for susan s refuge But I will never become a full vegan though, unless life does t leave me with no other way out would you smuggle some sausage or hunt some meat for me us in the calm, at times I think she would tolerate it, if she wouldn t know or have to see it We could barbecue it near by creek or something, before we return to garden work etc pretending to be safe under a chemtrailed southern france sky. We could also try to find a sheck in my country, ya know, even Bilderbergers appreciate it a lot. To Switzerland, southern Germany or Italy it would t be close to go too. well, think it over. PS btw, who needs a boa t in the wonderful alps HA. I guess it s looking like a jobless, cashless recovery now. Why We re Headed Toward A Cashless Society zerohedge zerohedge June 28, 2015.Excess crude production affecting China s refined oil market. The current surplus of crude oil production may have affected downstream operations around the world, with China having three times cancelled price adjustments this year due to an excess of finished oil products in storage, reports the China Business Journal. The Standard Definition of Money is in Error. The standard definition of money is given in terms of its three functions.1 Money is a medium of exchange 2 Money is a measure of value 3 Money is a store of value. Number 1 is at best misleading Numbers 2 and 3 are simply wrong, and these things are easy to show It is also easy to show that this is important. First, the actual definition of money.1 Money is a token, or instrument, of demand, which is exchanged for goods or services Or simply Money is demand 2 Money is a measure of demand 3 Money is a store of demand. WHERE S THERE A CRASH WORLDS ECONOMY COLLAPSING. HEADLINES JUNE 2015.EUROPE ECB sees growth faltering as it presses on with QE S P cuts ratings on European banks EU Car Registration Growth Slows In May Eurozone Industrial Production Growth At 3-month Low Below Forecast Europe s largest insurer Allianz to cut sales costs, jobs CoCo s cross-holdings are good way to blow up the European banking system Eurozone Investor Confidence Falls To 4-Month Low. GERMANY German GfK Consumer Confidence Set To Fall In July German Private Sector Growth Slowest In Five Months German business confidence falls sharply in June German Construction Sector Activity Falls To Four-Month Low In May German machinery orders drop in April German Business Confidence Falls To 4-Month Low German ZEW Investor Confidence At 7-month Low German economic sentiment drops to 7-month low German Business Insolvencies Rose 5 3 In March MAN eyes 2,000 job cuts in VW-led trucks revamp. GERMANY PERIPHERY Hungary Industrial Production Growth Eases As Estimated Czech Industrial, Construction Output Growth Slows In April Slovakia Industrial Production Growth Eases Sharply In April Slovakia April Retail Sales Fall At Steepest Rate In 18 Months Croatia Industrial Sales Growth Eases In April Latvia Retail Sales Growth Slows For Second Month Latvia Q1 Growth Revised Lower Romania Industrial Sales Fall In April Bulgaria Industrial Production Growth Slows In May. SWISS SECO Cuts Swiss GDP Growth Forecast Swiss May exports fall as strong franc hits demand Swiss industrial pump maker cuts jobs to counter strong Swiss franc Nestle cuts 15 of its Africa workforce Nestle cutting jobs in Africa. DENMARK Denmark Consumer Confidence Falls For Third Month In June Denmark Industrial Production Falls In April. FINLAND Finland Q1 GDP Contracts Finland Unemployment Rate Rises To 13-Year High In May Finland Retail Sales Fall For Second Straight Month In May Finland Car Sales Fall For Second M onth In May Finland s Economic Output Drops In April Finland Retail Sales Fall In April Finland s Industrial Production Declined For The Sixth Straight Month In April. SWEDEN NIER Lowers Sweden s Growth Outlook Sweden GDP Growth Slows In Q1 Sweden Retail Sales Growth Eases For Second Month Sweden Economic Sentiment Weakens In June Sweden Manufacturing Growth Eases In May Riksbank sees rise in risks to Swedish economy households continued debt build. NORWAY Norway s Statoil shed 1,500 jobs, simplifies structure to cut costs Norway to raise capital buffer for banks Norway Industrial Production Falls In April. FRANCE French Unemployment Hits Record High 80 Consecutive Month Of Rising Joblessness French Unemployment Surges By Most In 7 Months To New Record High French Manufacturing Confidence Drops Unexpectedly In June French business confidence falls in June French Industrial Output Falls Unexpectedly French industrial output falls unexpectedly Air France-KLM revenue down 6 , load factor dow n YoY French new car registrations fall 4 in May French Consumer Spending Rebounds Less Than Expected In April. ITALY Italy Exports Declined In April Italian Luxury Fashion Prada Profit Fell 42 , Net Income 44 Italy Industrial Production Falls Unexpectedly In April Italy industrial output falls unexpectedly Italy Service Sector Growth Slows More Than Expected In May. SPAIN PORTUGAL Spain s Service Sector Growth Moderates In May Portugal Industrial Production Falls In April. GREECE Greece Q1 Jobless Rate Rises S P downgrades Greece deeper into junk Greece Industrial Production Growth Slows Sharply In April Greece misses IMF payment in warning shot as showdown with Europe escalates. SOUTH EUROPE Cyprus Q1 Unemployment Rate Climbs Malta Economic Growth Slows In Q1 Turkey March Jobless Rate Rises Turkey s GDP Growth Slows In Q1.U K UK Growth Forecast Cut On Weaker Q1 GDP CBI CBI Downgrades U K Growth Outlook EEF Lowers U K Manufacturing Growth Forecast U K Oil Gas net loss widens U K Retail Sa les Slowed U K Retail Sales Growth Slows In June CBI U K Manufacturers New Orders Fall In June U K Automotive Marketplace Auto Trader Profit Falls U K Household Finance Outlook Weakens In June U K Construction Output Falls Unexpectedly In April U K Industrial Output Growth Slows In April U K Home Retail s Argos unit posts 1Q drop in sales U K Supermarket Chain Sainsbury s Q1 Sales Fall U K Manufacturing output dips in April U K House Price Growth Slowest Since 2013 UK Service Sector Growth At 5-Month Low U K Halifax House Prices Fall For First Time In 3 Months. Ireland Industrial Production Growth Eases Sharply In April. Protests break out in Greece calling for EU exit. Banks in Greece have failed to open on Monday following failure to strike a financial deal with EU leaders on Friday leading to protests calling to leave the European Union. WHERE S THERE A CRASH WORLDS ECONOMY COLLAPSING. HEADLINES JUNE 2015.U S The US Is Already In A Recession Real Hourly Earnings Drop To Lowest In 2015 Ma nufacturing Jobs Decline For The 3rd Month Teenage summer jobs fall to an historic low The Job Market Will Get Much Worse, JPMorgan Warns 93 Million People No Longer Counted In The Work Force 93 Million Americans Remain Out Of The Labor Force 2014 Real Unemployment Rate Was 42 9 , Not 5 5 70 million Americans teetering on edge of financial ruin 47 of Americans would have to Borrow or Sell to Cover an Expense of 400 29 of Americans over 55 have zero retirement savings Thousands of Detroit residents have water cutoff Food Banks In New York Are Running Out Of Food Big city, big need NYC food bank ask for 16 million to combat growing need America s Discouraged, Underpaid Workforce Turns To Drugs Economic Confidence Tumbles Back To 2015 Lows Excluding Obamacare And The Harsh Winter , Q1 GDP Tumbled -1 4 Final Q2 GDP Revision Confirms 3rd Negative GDP Quarter Of The Recovery U S Weekly Jobless Claims Edge Higher U S Weekly Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Inch Up To 279,000 North Dakota s employm ent picture continues to worsen These 15 states still haven t recovered jobs lost in recession People in these 4 states saw their incomes fall in early 2015.U S FURTHER BAD NEWS U S Productivity Tumbles 3 1 In Q1, More Than Previously Estimated Lowest US Worker Productivity In 22 Years U S corporate profits sink 5 9 , biggest drop since 2008 Fed s Beige Book Hints At Sputtering Economy US Imports Drop 3 3 Chicago Business Barometer Unexpectedly Indicates Contraction In May U S state spending growth to slow in 2016 U S posts budget deficit of 82 4 billion in May Rising cost on U S rate swaps raises worries Wikileaks Reveals Full Text Of Trans-Pacific Partnership U S to investigate imports of corrosion-resistant steel Poppy cultivation has risen sharply since the beginning of the US occupation Fed says stress test models will stay a secret Goldman Warns Healthcare Costs Will Continue To Rise Record Trillion 2015 Stock Buybacks Announced, Bigger Than Peak QE U S foreclosure activity up in May as bank repossessions rise Cities, States Shun Moody s For Blowing The Whistle On Pension Liabilities Another Day, Another US Dollar Flash Crash U S 30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump Above 4 How Fund Managers Use ETF Phantom Liquidity To Avert A Meltdown Why Goldman Sachs Is Diving Back Into High-Speed Stock Trading QE Begins to Screw Investors Luxury Co Chairman Afraid The Poor Will Rise Up Against Rich What Keeps A Billionaire Awake At Night Envy, Hatred, Social Warfare And The Homebuilder Plunges 12 Fund managers dump government bonds, rout continues Fund Manager A Derivatives Bomb Exploded Within The Last Two Weeks All Hell Broke Loose and I Bet You Didn t Notice Bond market breaking Experts Throw Up All Over Made Up, Phony, Smoke And Mirrors Numbers Student Debt Cancellations Begin Government To Forgive 3 6 Billion Philly Fed Admits QE widens inequality Capex Recovery Is Worst In History, BofAML Says The sneaky way credit card companies trick you into paying up to 36 interest Chica go Faces 2 2 Billion Bank Payout After Rating Cut to Junk Corinthian Bankruptcy Caps Biggest U S Education Meltdown Ferrovial, Macquarie put up for sale concession in Chicago toll road Germany approves contentious road toll. US Services PMI Misses By Most On Record, Tumbles To Lowest Since January U S factory activity growth at slowest since October 2013 Markit U S industrial output hurt by weakness in manufacturing, mining U S Durable Goods Orders Fall More Than Expected In May US Manufacturing PMI Slumps To Weakest Since Oct 2013 New York Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Indicates Contraction In June New York Manufacturing Index Unexpectedly Turns Negative In June U S Industrial Production Unexpectedly Drops In May US Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Plunges To Lowest Since January 2013 Nonfarm Productivity Collapses Greater Than Expected 3 1 , Unit Labor Costs Rise U S Non-Manufacturing Index Falls Much More Than Expected In May U S Service Sector Grows At Slowest Rate In Over A Year In May ISM Services Plunges To 13 Month Lows As Post-Weather Bounceback Fades Factory Orders Drop 6 From Year Ago In Sixth Consecutive Drop U S Factory Orders Pull Back More Than Expected In April US Manufacturing PMI Weakes t Since Jan. Consumers Are Not Following Orders U S consumer sentiment index falls in June No Consumer Economy With Stagnant Incomes, Rising Basic Expenses Curious Strong Retail Sales US Already Applying Double Seasonal Adjustments Consumer Comfort Plunges As Buying Climate Crashes Most Since Lehman Personal Consumption Expenditure dropped to its lowest since Feb 2014 May Consumer Spending Has Biggest Annual Drop Since Great Financial Crisis Consumer sentiment drops to six-month low in May. U S RETAIL Caterpillar Global Retail Sales Decline For 30th Consecutive Month Goodyear to shut down UK manufacturing plant, cut 360-390 jobs McDonalds Reports 12th Consecutive Month Of Declining Global Sales Colt Defense, 179-Year-Old Gunmaker, Files for Bankruptcy Barnes Noble reports loss again as Nook sales plunge General Mills to cut jobs under new restructuring plan Standard Life to close Singapore insurance arm, take 70 6 million loss Technology company Synnex May quarter revenue dropped 5 8 , downbeat outlook Micron Tech sales fall on lower DRAM pricing GM taking 600 mln charge on Venezuelan currency Irrigation equipment maker Lindsay s profit, sales fall Pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers to close sites, cut 100 jobs Bed Bath Beyond Earnings Fell 15 In May United Airlines to end service at NYC s JFK airport after losses Commercial plane orders slow jetmakers focus on backlog Delta cuts passenger unit revenue guidance after industry metric declined 5 5 Boeing plans to further slow 747 jet production in 2016 FedEx swings to quarterly net loss Gap To Fire Thousands, Close A Quarter Of All Specialty Locations Bouygues CEO says telecoms unit was lossmaking in first-quarter Auto and Home Insurer Allstate s May Catastrophe Losses Reach 178 Million CarMax Slowing Market For Used Cars Sales Big Chocolate Manufacturer Hershey to Cut 300 Jobs, Cuts Sales Forecast Again Steelmaker Nucor projects disappointing Q2 earnings News Corp to cut jobs, shift resources to digital media Starbu cks to close Its La Boulange pastry shops FedEx profit and revenue fall short FedEx to take 2 2 billion charge on pension accounting change HSBC s investment bank to shed clients, assets in profitability push HSBC To Fire 50,000, One In Five Jobs, To Fund Dividends To Shareholders HSBC Joins JPMorgan Prepares To Unveil Up To 20,000 Job Cuts GM to lay off workers, cut production at Michigan small-car plant Channel Stuffing The Economy There Has Never Been More Cars On The Sidelines Boutique retailer Francesca s offers weak outlook, same-store sales Women s retailer Christopher Banks swings to loss, cuts outlook Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores profit plunged 42 in Q1 Burlington Retailer Chain Blew It Clothing and accessories retailer Gap sales fall in May Furniture and home-appliance retailer Conn s profit down 44 Women s apparel retailer Ascena profit falls 27 on higher costs Tiffany Sales Declined 4 9 Dollar Tree to shed 330 stores Weird Nationwide Walmart Closures Spark Conspiracy Th eories. U S Housing Starts Pull Back More Than Expected In May America s Housing Problem Buying And Renting Are Both Unaffordable Rental Permits Soar Most Since 1990 Housing Starts Plunge 11 As April Bounce Fades American homeowners still drowning in mortgage debt Greenspan Dashes Recovery Hopes Housing Stagnation Is Here To Stay Minimum-wage workers need 2 roommates to afford a San Francisco apartment Home builder Hovnanian s quarterly loss widens Home Down Payments Hit Three-Year Low. Canadian oil group cuts long-term growth forecast Mexico Industrial Production Growth Slows More Than Expected Brazil Retail Sales Drop Most On Record, Goldman Warns Will Get Worse Brazil Factories Shed Jobs In Fastest Pace In Six Years Amid Downturn. Dirty Roller Scroller. Mum to show art by son who starved after benefits slashed. When he died from malnutrition, he weighed just over five stone. WORLD ECONOMY COLLAPSING. WORLD GROWTH FORECAST HEADLINES JUNE 2015.The World s Biggest Economies Are About to Feel the Imp act of China s Slowdown World Bank lowers 2015 global growth forecast World Bank Lowers Global Growth Outlook Urges Fed To Hold Off Rate Hike IMF Panics Slashes US Growth Forecasts. OECD downgrades outlook for global growth OECD G20 Economic Growth Eases In Q1 OECD indicators cast doubt on U S rebound OECD cuts Canada s growth forecast on oil slump OECD cuts South Korea s growth forecast to 3.India Leading Index Declines In May PBOC lowers China 2015 GDP, CPI growth forecasts China Central Bank Slashes Inflation, Growth Forecasts South Korea announces stimulus, cuts 2015 growth view MAS Survey Singapore 2015 GDP Growth Revised Lower Malaysia Leading Index Falls In April Japan Leading Index For April Revised Down. Australia Leading Index Falls 0 3 In April Australia Leading Index Slips In May Westpac New Zealand GDP Slows in Q1, Mining down 7 8 , Agriculture down 2 3.ECB sees growth faltering as it presses on with QE S P cuts ratings on European banks Latvia Q1 Growth Revised Lower SECO C uts Swiss GDP Growth Forecast Finland Q1 GDP Contracts Finland s Economic Output Drops In April NIER Lowers Sweden s Growth Outlook Sweden GDP Growth Slows In Q1 Riksbank sees rise in risks to Swedish economy households continued debt build S P downgrades Greece deeper into junk UK Growth Forecast Cut On Weaker Q1 GDP CBI CBI Downgrades U K Growth Outlook EEF Lowers U K Manufacturing Growth Forecast. Excluding Obamacare And The Harsh Winter , Q1 GDP Tumbled -1 4 Final Q2 GDP Revision Confirms 3rd Negative GDP Quarter Of The Recovery The US Is Already In A Recession Real Hourly Earnings Drop To Lowest In 2015 No Consumer Economy With Stagnant Incomes, Rising Basic Expenses Canadian oil group cuts long-term growth forecast. WORLD ECONOMY COLLAPSING. WORLD UNEMPLOYMENT HEADLINES JUNE 2015.OECD Warns 40 Million People Will Be Out Of Work Next Year South Korea Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Rises In May Malaysia Airlines CEO says carrier technically bankrupt , set to cut jobs, rout. Europe s largest insurer Allianz to cut sales costs, jobs MAN eyes 2,000 job cuts in VW-led trucks revamp Swiss industrial pump maker cuts jobs to counter strong Swiss franc Nestle cuts 15 of its Africa workforce Nestle cutting jobs in Africa. Finland Unemployment Rate Rises To 13-Year High In May Norway s Statoil shed 1,500 jobs, simplifies structure to cut costs French Unemployment Hits Record High 80 Consecutive Month Of Rising Joblessness French Unemployment Surges By Most In 7 Months To New Record High Greece Q1 Jobless Rate Rises Cyprus Q1 Unemployment Rate Climbs Turkey March Jobless Rate Rises. Teenage summer jobs fall to an historic low U S Weekly Jobless Claims Edge Higher Manufacturing Jobs Decline For The 3rd Month The Job Market Will Get Much Worse, JPMorgan Warns 93 Million People No Longer Counted In The Work Force 93 Million Americans Remain Out Of The Labor Force 70 million Americans teetering on edge of financial ruin 47 of Americans would have to Borrow or Sell to Cover an Expense of 400 29 of Americans over 55 have zero retirement savings 2014 Real Unemployment Rate Was 42 9 , Not 5 5 U S Weekly Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Inch Up To 279,000 North Dakota s employment picture continues to worsen These 15 states still haven t recovered jobs lost in recession People in these 4 states saw their incomes fall in early 2015.Goodyear to shut down UK manufacturing plant, cut 360-390 jobs Colt Defense, 179-Year-Old Gunmaker, Files for Bankruptcy General Mills to cut jobs under new restructuring plan Standard Life to close Singapore insurance arm, take 70 6 million loss Pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers to close sites, cut 100 jobs Gap To Fire Thousands, Close A Quarter Of All Specialty Locations Big Chocolate Manufacturer Hershey to Cut 300 Jobs, Cuts Sales Forecast Again News Corp to cut jobs, shift resources to digital media Starbucks to close Its La Boulange pastry shops HSBC To Fire 50,000, One In Five Jobs, To Fund Dividends To Shareholders HSBC Joins JPMorgan Prepa res To Unveil Up To 20,000 Job Cuts GM to lay off workers, cut production at Michigan small-car plant Dollar Tree to shed 330 stores Brazil Factories Shed Jobs In Fastest Pace In Six Years Amid Downturn. That story is stunning To think another human being signed off on that man to survive on 40 a week Yet we have far less talented people feeding on the trough to the tune of millions a year Disgusting As usual. X22Report Spotlight Private Western Central Banks, AIIB, Cyber Attacks, Censorship The Economic Collapse. The Portuguese legal expression depositrio infiel refers to a person or entity that holds another s goods in bad faith Either by refusing to return it, or diverting its benefits, selling it outright, or by debasing its value by any means. If the money is European , not Greek , if it is printed, if the people have legitimate claims on deposits the banks which were often physical, to begin with , then the correct thing to do is to print it, hand it over to the people who have legiti mate claims on it If they want to buy stuff, offer payment facilities that do not involve physical cash Let the derivatives and other abstract financial creditors swallow their beards and ponytails. Putting real money in the hands of real people who have legitimate claims on it would involve a fraction of the funny artificial financial claims And would boost the real economy and real GDP to new heights immediately And would enact a material, real-world sort of Glass Steagall In acto Which probably would displease several important interests. Andy Perry says. Three weeks ago I posted this. In Greece there will have to be another election in short order And the EU political elite will actively try to influence the outcome of this election as a political player. Greece debt crisis vote yes to stay in the euro, says Juncker live updates Guardian just now. Interesting President Dilma Rousseff in the USA To meet Obama, roomfuls of investors and businesspeople, and Henry Kissinger, the war criminal and arch human rights apostate and violator Whose espoused policies resulted in her arrest and torture by the military dictatorship in her youth. Paul C Juncker what a piece of shit He is talking about the EU being democratic LOL What a fool. I think that Greece as an exporting country also for tourism could use the same system Denmark follows with still is keeping it s own currency the Danish Krone. As tourist you pay the Danish and the Greeks Euro s, in return you get useless local Viking currency with holes in it or Drachmas. The problem is that you could easily be attacked by hedge funds hyenas looking for a quick buck manipulating the currency up, breaking it s Euro-Peg We have seen that happen in Swiss but this could also happen in Denmark or Sweden. Maybe Greece adopting the Rubel wouldn t be a bad idea at all since if Greece get s it s energy from Russia a rising Rubel will help to lift off Greeces economy because energy prices will be rock stable to build further the emerging econ omy. Russian sanctions are simply too ridiculous, Europe is shooting itself in the head Europe needs Russia and Russia needs Europe. For countries like the US that have lost industries to Asia. I love these euphemisms reminds me of that 1 5 billions that MFB Global vaporized Strewth Anyway, interesting article nonetheless. But of course Greek could simply keep using the Euro, why not. The absurdity of a consult of last resource a GDP chart of what we know to be fudged, numbered mis-directs and then forecasting lol your planet s future. From ZERO The Biggest Problem Facing The World Today 9 Countries Have Debt-To-GDP Over 300 and that a whopping 39 countries have debt-to-GDP of over 100.Really Are we not overlooking the appropriate, natural and observable fact The Biggest Problem Facing The World Today The Monetary Religion. When we observe richest 100 people get richer, your GDP rises By all means, to maximize human apathy, you would come up with yet another GDP chart. Fake a 4 2 million word tax code, that nobody understands, to a gun fight that would be an intentional fake. The Most Dishonest Number in the World LIBOR Black. The too the Genie is clearly out of the bottle More and more and more people will lose their jobs for money due to technological unemployment Currently, only 10 percent of jobs robots could do are actually done through robotic technology. Think of Greece as a money farm without GDP taxation sources Hold your breath till 2525 exhale how s your particular money farm or should I say your banker s money farm doing. Can we also make the natural instinct for research, observation that robots taking over jobs is only a threat in a monetary theology paradigm no so, in an advanced, debtless civilization.
No comments:
Post a Comment